Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, April 21, 2026)?

Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIN. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, April 21, 2026: Nolan McLean (~6.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~6.3 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Kris Bubic (~6.0 K), Parker Messick (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, April 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 5–8

HOUaway

CLEhomeTop matchup61 Final · 12–6

CINaway

TBhomeTop matchup53 Final · 5–3

STLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup44 Final · 12–4

MILaway

DEThomeTop matchup50 Final · 4–11

ATLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup51 Final · 4–0

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup56 Final · 5–3

MINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–6

BALaway

KChomeTop matchup69 Final · 4–7

PHIaway

CHChomeTop matchup90 Final · 1–5

PITaway

TEXhomeTop matchup48 Final · 1–0

SDaway

COLhomeTop matchup56 Final · 4–2

TORaway

LAAhomeTop matchup29 Final · 5–2

ATHaway

SEAhomeTop matchup37 Final · 11–5

CWSaway

AZhomeTop matchup41 Final · 1–3

LADaway

SFhomeTop matchup56

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB28.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.9%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)23.2%3.0

3. James Outman (L)29.0%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.9%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)26.9%2.8

6. Luke Keaschall (R)18.2%2.0

7. Matt Wallner (L)30.1%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)22.9%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate31.0% K/BF

vs LHB30.6%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)18.0%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.2%3.0

4. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%3.0

5. Adolis García (R)21.0%2.2

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.8%2.0

7. Alec Bohm (R)17.7%2.0

8. Brandon Marsh (L)27.1%2.0

9. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)18.2%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)21.1%3.0

3. Ian Happ (R)25.1%3.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)20.5%3.0

5. Carson Kelly (R)19.6%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)19.2%2.5

7. Dansby Swanson (R)24.5%2.0

8. Scott Kingery (R)24.2%2.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.4% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)19.1%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.6%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)20.1%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)24.1%3.0

5. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.6%2.8

6. Weston Wilson (R)26.0%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (R)25.4%2.0

8. Samuel Basallo (L)21.5%2.0

9. Colton Cowser (L)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)19.0%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.8%3.0

3. Jose Altuve (R)21.8%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)21.2%3.0

5. Isaac Paredes (R)20.1%3.0

6. Cam Smith (R)22.8%2.1

7. Yainer Diaz (R)19.4%2.0

8. Brice Matthews (R)28.4%2.0

9. Daniel Johnson (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.4%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)20.1%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.7%3.0

4. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.9%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)24.4%2.8

6. Will Smith (R)18.0%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)24.6%2.0

8. Alex Call (R)20.6%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)24.9%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.7%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)19.3%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.0%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)22.4%3.0

6. Jerar Encarnacion (R)21.6%2.3

7. Heliot Ramos (R)25.0%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.8%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)24.2%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)22.0%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)28.0%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)19.9%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.2%2.8

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.2%2.0

7. Kyle Karros (R)21.6%2.0

8. Jordan Beck (R)23.7%2.0

9. Willi Castro (L)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ryan McMahon (L)24.6%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)25.7%3.0

3. Ben Rice (L)24.2%3.0

4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)24.2%3.0

5. Cody Bellinger (L)18.1%2.3

6. Trent Grisham (L)22.9%2.0

7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.7%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)25.6%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)23.2%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)20.8%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)26.2%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.7%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.6%2.4

6. Spencer Steer (R)21.9%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.0%2.0

8. Will Benson (L)22.6%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.9%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)23.3%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)27.8%3.0

6. Michael Massey (L)21.3%2.4

7. Jac Caglianone (L)23.4%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)27.6%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.8%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.7%3.0

3. Jacob Young (R)20.4%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)15.2%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)17.9%2.3

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.8%2.0

7. Brady House (R)26.2%2.0

8. Curtis Mead (R)20.9%2.0

9. Drew Millas (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.3%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)16.0%3.0

3. Jake Bauers (L)23.0%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)22.9%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.5%2.5

6. Joey Ortiz (R)21.5%2.0

7. Luis Matos (R)20.2%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)20.1%2.0

9. Greg Jones (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.5%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)22.5%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.7%3.0

4. Ben Williamson (R)20.1%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)18.5%2.7

6. Ryan Vilade (R)22.5%2.0

7. Richie Palacios (L)18.5%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)25.2%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)26.8%3.0

2. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.0%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)23.5%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)20.8%2.8

6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.5%2.0

7. Jake Mangum (L)21.6%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)23.8%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.5%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)17.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)16.2%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)26.9%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.0%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.7%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)24.7%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)20.0%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Andrew Benintendi (L)25.7%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)25.8%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.3%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)27.1%3.0

5. Everson Pereira (R)23.0%3.0

6. Sam Antonacci (L)17.9%2.1

7. Chase Meidroth (R)19.0%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)25.6%2.0

9. Reese McGuire (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.9%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.5%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.7%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)26.1%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)23.9%2.6

6. Josh Jung (R)20.2%2.0

7. Evan Carter (L)19.5%2.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)24.1%2.0

9. Josh Smith (L)18.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)23.8%3.0

2. Wenceel Pérez (R)19.7%3.0

3. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.9%3.0

4. Matt Vierling (R)19.8%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)19.9%2.2

6. Riley Greene (L)24.5%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.3%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)25.4%2.0

9. Colt Keith (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Luke Raley (L)23.5%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)24.4%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.3%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)22.5%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)23.9%2.8

6. J.P. Crawford (L)22.0%2.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)22.8%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)19.7%2.0

9. Dominic Canzone (L)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)23.1%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)25.5%3.0

3. Masataka Yoshida (L)17.2%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.5%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)27.1%2.5

6. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.0%2.0

7. Jarren Duran (L)25.4%2.0

8. Caleb Durbin (R)16.3%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)21.2%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)22.7%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.2%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)16.5%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)15.0%2.7

6. Agustín Ramírez (R)22.6%2.0

7. Javier Sanoja (R)17.1%2.0

8. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.8%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.6%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)23.5%3.0

3. Carlos Cortes (L)14.4%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.4%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)15.2%2.7

6. Jeff McNeil (L)17.1%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)30.2%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)22.1%2.0

9. Zack Gelof (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)19.2%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)16.7%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.9%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)18.8%2.6

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)20.4%2.0

7. Michael Harris II (L)22.4%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (R)19.9%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)20.2%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)24.4%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.8%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)24.1%3.0

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)20.1%2.6

6. Jose Fernandez (R)23.3%2.0

7. Nolan Arenado (R)21.0%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.6%2.0

9. Alek Thomas (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB27.6%

vs RHB17.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)23.8%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.0%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)19.0%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)23.2%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (R)27.9%2.5

6. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.6%2.0

7. Adam Frazier (L)22.1%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.7%2.0

9. Josh Lowe (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.3 BF

Expected batters faced18.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)14.3%2.3

2. Chase DeLauter (L)16.2%2.0

3. José Ramírez (L)16.7%2.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)30.6%2.0

5. George Valera (L)20.0%2.0

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.6%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)23.0%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)23.1%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Myles Straw (R)17.3%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)13.9%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)18.4%3.0

4. Davis Schneider (R)26.2%3.0

5. Eloy Jiménez (R)22.4%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.2%2.6

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.4%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.2%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB16.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Marcus Semien (R)19.0%3.0

2. Francisco Lindor (L)21.3%3.0

3. Luis Robert Jr. (R)23.7%3.0

4. Bo Bichette (R)21.8%3.0

5. Luis Torrens (R)19.7%3.0

6. Francisco Alvarez (R)18.7%2.0

7. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.8%2.0

8. Mark Vientos (R)25.0%2.0

9. Carson Benge (L)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB18.4%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)24.6%2.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.0%2.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)21.1%2.0

4. Manny Machado (R)21.3%2.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)16.5%1.7

6. Ty France (R)17.4%1.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)17.6%1.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)20.4%1.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, April 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Shota Imanaga (CHC) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nolan McLean

Nolan McLean (NYM) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIN. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and MIN has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Shota Imanaga (CHC) (90) — about 6.3 K vs PHI: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (78) — about 6.0 K vs CHC: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kris Bubic (KC) (69) — about 6.0 K vs BAL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Parker Messick (CLE) (61) — about 5.4 K vs HOU: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (56) — about 5.3 K vs LAD: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

MIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Nolan McLean is the arm to exploit it (100).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Randy Vásquez is the arm to exploit it (56).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Connelly Early is the arm to exploit it (56).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Kris Bubic is the arm to exploit it (69).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.8 strikeouts. Top play Nolan McLean punched out 10. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, April 21, 2026)?: Nolan McLean (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against MIN. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, April 21, 2026: Nolan McLean (~6.7 K), Shota Imanaga (~6.3 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Kris Bubic (~6.0 K), Parker Messick (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, April 21, 2026?: Nolan McLean punched out 10.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.