Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, April 24, 2026)?

Will Warren (NYY) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against HOU. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, April 24, 2026: Will Warren (~5.8 K), Drew Rasmussen (~5.5 K), George Kirby (~5.3 K), Nathan Eovaldi (~5.1 K), Paul Skenes (~5.2 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, April 24, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, April 24, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 8–9

DETaway

CINhomeTop matchup58 Final · 3–10

BOSaway

BALhomeTop matchup48 Final · 8–6

CLEaway

TORhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–3

COLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup76 Final · 2–6

MINaway

TBhomeTop matchup86 Final · 3–5

PHIaway

ATLhomeTop matchup67 Final · 3–6

LAAaway

KChomeTop matchup71 Final · 4–5

WSHaway

CWShomeTop matchup31 Final · 6–0

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup81 Final · 8–1

ATHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup81 Final · 12–4

NYYaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–2

SEAaway

STLhomeTop matchup83 Final · 6–4

CHCaway

LADhomeTop matchup74 Final · 9–4

MIAaway

SFhomeTop matchup52

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.8% K/BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Braden Shewmake (L)20.3%3.0

2. Christian Vázquez (R)20.8%3.0

3. Shay Whitcomb (R)26.2%3.0

4. Daniel Johnson (L)22.4%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)20.8%2.2

6. Cam Smith (R)22.8%2.0

7. Dustin Harris (L)18.6%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)19.2%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)27.0%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)21.2%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)22.4%3.0

4. Victor Caratini (L)17.3%2.5

5. Kody Clemens (L)26.3%2.0

6. Royce Lewis (R)26.8%2.0

7. Matt Wallner (L)29.0%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)21.0%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.3%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.5%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.3%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)27.1%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.7%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.8%3.0

7. Nathan Church (L)24.2%2.1

8. Ramón Urías (R)19.5%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB26.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)25.4%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.9%3.0

3. Carlos Cortes (L)15.3%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.3%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)14.4%3.0

6. Jeff McNeil (L)16.7%2.5

7. Max Muncy (R)29.6%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)24.1%2.0

9. Zack Gelof (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)20.8%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)16.4%3.0

3. Jake Bauers (L)22.1%2.9

4. Tyler Black (L)24.8%2.0

5. Luis Rengifo (L)18.2%2.0

6. Blake Perkins (L)26.8%2.0

7. Greg Jones (L)23.7%2.0

8. Brandon Lockridge (R)23.6%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)27.9%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)19.4%3.0

3. Jake Mangum (L)20.3%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.7%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.5%3.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.5%2.2

7. Billy Cook (R)24.9%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)24.9%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mickey Moniak (L)21.5%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)29.1%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)19.6%3.0

4. Tyler Freeman (R)17.8%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.7%2.8

6. Kyle Karros (R)19.3%2.0

7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.1%2.0

8. Jordan Beck (R)24.3%2.0

9. Brenton Doyle (R)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.5%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)16.4%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.5%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)21.4%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.6%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)22.7%2.3

7. Andy Pages (R)23.0%2.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)24.0%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Loftin (R)20.9%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.1%3.0

3. Salvador Perez (R)21.1%3.0

4. Lane Thomas (R)19.0%3.0

5. Kyle Isbel (L)24.9%2.7

6. Carter Jensen (L)19.6%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (R)24.0%2.0

8. Elias Díaz (R)21.2%2.0

9. Michael Massey (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.2% K/BF

vs LHB29.0%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Davis Schneider (R)25.8%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)14.3%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)18.1%3.0

4. Myles Straw (R)17.2%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)18.4%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.3%2.0

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.3%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.2%2.0

9. Eloy Jiménez (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)14.4%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)24.7%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)15.9%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)24.0%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.5%2.5

6. Matt Shaw (R)21.9%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)19.9%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.4%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)19.6%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)22.1%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.7%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)17.9%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)25.6%2.0

6. Dominic Smith (L)16.4%2.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)20.1%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.1%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.3%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)28.2%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)17.4%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)27.9%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.7%2.4

6. Bryson Stott (L)19.6%2.0

7. Alec Bohm (R)21.7%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)20.7%2.0

9. Garrett Stubbs (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.4%3.0

2. Amed Rosario (R)21.2%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.5%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)23.4%3.0

5. Randal Grichuk (R)21.3%2.5

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.9%2.0

7. J.C. Escarra (L)22.5%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)25.5%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB27.2%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.5%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)21.3%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.0%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)15.8%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.8%3.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)21.0%2.2

7. Ben Williamson (R)21.0%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.4%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dane Myers (R)22.3%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)21.5%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)26.7%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.2%3.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)21.3%3.0

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)24.1%2.9

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)21.3%2.0

8. Rece Hinds (R)28.1%2.0

9. TJ Friedl (L)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.6%3.0

2. Andrew McCutchen (R)30.4%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.6%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)26.0%3.0

5. Josh Jung (R)19.4%2.7

6. Evan Carter (L)21.5%2.0

7. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.1%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)17.0%2.0

9. Sam Haggerty (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)24.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)22.7%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)17.8%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)21.7%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (R)26.9%2.8

6. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.2%2.0

7. Vaughn Grissom (R)18.5%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)21.0%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.2% K/BF

vs LHB16.9%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)28.3%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.2%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)20.6%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)28.0%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)22.9%3.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)15.8%3.0

7. Heliot Ramos (R)24.5%2.9

8. Jerar Encarnacion (R)21.9%2.0

9. Christian Koss (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.6% K/BF

vs LHB17.2%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Blaze Alexander (R)27.6%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)19.8%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.6%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)24.5%3.0

5. Dylan Beavers (L)23.6%3.0

6. Samuel Basallo (L)21.9%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)19.6%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)24.8%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)25.5%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.0%3.0

3. Masataka Yoshida (L)16.2%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.8%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.2%2.4

6. Trevor Story (R)25.9%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.1%2.0

8. Caleb Durbin (R)16.8%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)22.6%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)18.6%3.0

3. Luis Torrens (R)20.8%3.0

4. Brett Baty (L)26.9%2.4

5. Mark Vientos (R)22.7%2.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.8%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)20.2%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)28.1%2.0

9. Ronny Mauricio (L)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.6%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)15.3%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.5%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)30.6%2.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.5%2.0

6. Steven Kwan (L)14.0%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.2%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)23.7%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.1% K/BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)18.6%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)25.0%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)17.8%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.1%2.9

6. Rob Refsnyder (R)23.3%2.0

7. Dominic Canzone (L)21.7%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)22.3%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.2% K/BF

vs LHB15.5%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)20.2%3.0

2. Esteury Ruiz (R)26.9%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)20.0%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)16.4%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)13.8%3.0

6. Agustín Ramírez (R)22.7%2.8

7. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.9%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)16.5%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)28.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB15.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.1%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.7%3.0

3. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.0%3.0

4. Matt Vierling (R)19.2%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)21.4%2.9

6. Riley Greene (L)25.4%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)23.9%2.0

8. Colt Keith (L)21.8%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.4 BF

Expected batters faced13.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)25.7%2.0

2. Daylen Lile (L)20.2%2.0

3. Brady House (R)25.2%2.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)25.4%2.0

5. Jacob Young (R)18.3%1.4

6. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.6%1.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (R)23.5%1.0

8. Joey Wiemer (R)27.0%1.0

9. José Tena (L)21.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Andrew Benintendi (L)24.3%2.0

2. Chase Meidroth (R)21.3%2.0

3. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.3%2.0

4. Miguel Vargas (R)18.0%2.0

5. Colson Montgomery (L)24.8%1.3

6. Edgar Quero (R)20.9%1.0

7. Derek Hill (R)23.4%1.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.5%1.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)24.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, April 24, 2026

Will Warren (NYY) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, April 24, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K, with Drew Rasmussen (TB) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Will Warren

Will Warren (NYY) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against HOU. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and HOU has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 22 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Drew Rasmussen (TB) (86) — about 5.5 K vs MIN: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
George Kirby (SEA) (83) — about 5.3 K vs STL: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) (81) — about 5.1 K vs ATH: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Paul Skenes (PIT) (81) — about 5.2 K vs MIL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL) (81) — about 5.5 K vs PIT: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

MIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Drew Rasmussen is the arm to exploit it (86).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Framber Valdez is the arm to exploit it (58).
NYM is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Michael Lorenzen is the arm to exploit it (36).
LAD is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jameson Taillon is the arm to exploit it (74).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.8 strikeouts. Top play Will Warren punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, April 24, 2026)?: Will Warren (NYY) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against HOU. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, April 24, 2026: Will Warren (~5.8 K), Drew Rasmussen (~5.5 K), George Kirby (~5.3 K), Nathan Eovaldi (~5.1 K), Paul Skenes (~5.2 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, April 24, 2026?: Will Warren punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.