Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, June 18, 2026
Top hits spot: Bo Bichette
Bo Bichette (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The righty is hitting .230 H/PA against righties this year — and .409 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .357 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Aaron Nola too — .400 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) (81) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
- Zack Gelof (ATH) (76) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .265 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (76) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.265).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (76) vs LHP Parker Messick: an elite bat at .311 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (74) vs LHP Noah Cameron: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.500).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (74) vs LHP Martín Pérez: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), hot bat.
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) (71) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a strong bat at .269 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Zack Gelof (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Carson Benge (NYM), and Juan Soto (NYM).
- RHP Shane Baz has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: J.P. Crawford (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Cole Young (SEA).
Platoon edges to target
- Chase Meidroth (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .325 against lefties this year.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .303 against lefties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year.
- Randal Grichuk (CWS) — righty bat vs LHP, .302 against lefties this year.
- J.P. Crawford (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Bo Bichette (NYM), Zack Gelof (ATH), Bryce Eldridge (SF), Dominic Canzone (SEA), Byron Buxton (MIN), and Mauricio Dubón (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Jordan Walker (STL), Ernie Clement (TOR), Nick Madrigal (LAA), Josh Jung (TEX), and Jared Young (NYM).
Lineup watch
18 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Bo Bichette finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.