Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top hits spot: Jake McCarthy
Jake McCarthy (COL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The lefty is hitting .241 H/PA against righties this year — and .304 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .367 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jared Jones. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) (86) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .258 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Willi Castro (COL) (86) vs RHP Jared Jones: a solid bat at .247 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.367), hitter's park.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (84) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .231 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) (84) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .242 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (81) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .229 into an arm tough on the same side (.191), hitter's park.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (79) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .287 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.265).
- Troy Johnston (COL) (78) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.367), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting tattooed by righties — .298 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Willi Castro (COL), and Troy Johnston (COL).
- LHP Andrew Alvarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .276 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Cedric Mullins (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
- RHP Elmer Rodríguez has been vulnerable to righties — .275 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Blake Dunn (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and Noelvi Marte (CIN).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
- Ryan O'Hearn (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
- Willi Castro (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .217 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .229 against righties this year.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Jake Mangum (PIT), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC). Cold but due to bounce back: Ryan O'Hearn (PIT), Troy Johnston (COL), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Tyler Callihan (PIT), and Drake Baldwin (ATL).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.