Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, April 11, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jack Leiter. The lefty is going deep on .023 HR/PA against righties this year — and .026 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jack Leiter has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .063 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jack Leiter too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Corey Seager (TEX) (69) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (67) vs RHP Nick Martinez: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (56) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: real bat at .047 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (55) vs RHP Kodai Senga: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (53) vs RHP Nick Martinez: real bat at .042 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- Max Muncy (LAD) (52) vs RHP Jack Leiter: solid bat at .040 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (51) vs LHP Brandon Williamson: solid bat at .038 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.028), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .023 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .086 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.