Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, April 16, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Brent Suter. The righty is going deep on .150 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .071 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Brent Suter has been keeping the ball in the park against lefties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brent Suter too — .500 across 4 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (64) vs RHP Jack Leiter: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (61) vs RHP Jordan Leasure: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (60) vs LHP Max Fried: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (59) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (56) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (56) vs RHP Luis Castillo: solid bat at .038 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067), hot bat.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (56) vs RHP Walker Buehler: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .150 against lefties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .019 against righties this year.
- Jo Adell (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .083 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.