Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, May 7, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP MacKenzie Gore. The righty is going deep on .106 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And MacKenzie Gore has been keeping the ball in the park against lefties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against MacKenzie Gore. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (87) vs RHP Christian Scott: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (86) vs RHP Andrew Painter: real bat at .045 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (80) vs RHP Paul Blackburn: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (79) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: big-time bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (73) vs RHP Jake Irvin: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (72) vs RHP Max Meyer: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (63) vs RHP Andrew Painter: real bat at .042 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .106 against lefties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .094 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .048 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.