Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, May 8, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob Misiorowski. The righty is going deep on .085 HR/PA against righties this year — and .120 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Jacob Misiorowski has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Jacob Misiorowski, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (73) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (69) vs RHP Chase Dollander: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (68) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (55) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (55) vs RHP Ben Brown: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (54) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.087).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (52) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .097 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.