Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, May 14, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael McGreevy. The lefty is going deep on .040 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 4% of his trips. And Michael McGreevy has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael McGreevy too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (85) vs RHP Chase Dollander: real bat at .045 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (82) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (82) vs RHP Ben Brown: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (76) vs RHP Keider Montero: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (75) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (74) vs RHP Luis Castillo: real bat at .040 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (71) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .043 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .055 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.