Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, May 18, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jake Irvin. The lefty is going deep on .061 HR/PA against righties this year — and .088 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jake Irvin has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 16 career PA against Jake Irvin. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (94) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: real bat at .046 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Michael King: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (78) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: real bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (77) vs RHP Christian Scott: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (70) vs RHP Bryan Woo: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (66) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (66) vs LHP Kendry Rojas: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .027 against righties this year.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .078 against lefties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.