Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, May 17, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Freddy Peralta. The righty is going deep on .077 HR/PA against righties this year — and .087 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Freddy Peralta has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .059 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Freddy Peralta, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (84) vs RHP Adrian Houser: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.095).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (84) vs RHP Paul Skenes: big-time bat at .057 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (77) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: real bat at .048 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (76) vs RHP Elmer Rodríguez: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (73) vs RHP Colin Rea: real bat at .050 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (64) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (64) vs RHP Colin Rea: real bat at .049 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .109 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .028 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .095 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.