Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, May 19, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dylan Cease. The righty is going deep on .075 HR/PA against righties this year — and .071 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Dylan Cease has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 20 career PA against Dylan Cease, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (85) vs RHP Griffin Canning: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (79) vs RHP Jason Alexander: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.167).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (74) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (72) vs RHP Chase Burns: real bat at .045 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (69) vs RHP Dylan Cease: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (63) vs RHP Landen Roupp: solid bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (58) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .026 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.