Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, May 20, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Trey Yesavage. The righty is going deep on .073 HR/PA against righties this year — and .050 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Trey Yesavage has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Trey Yesavage, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (96) vs RHP Zack Littell: real bat at .048 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (95) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (86) vs RHP Jack Kochanowicz: real bat at .045 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (85) vs RHP Mike Burrows: big-time bat at .054 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (81) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (73) vs RHP Joe Ryan: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (65) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .026 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .049 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.