Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Braydon Fisher. The righty is going deep on .071 HR/PA against righties this year — and .049 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Braydon Fisher has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .059 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Braydon Fisher. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (88) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: big-time bat at .050 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (77) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (70) vs RHP Braydon Fisher: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (69) vs RHP Zach Agnos: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (65) vs RHP Dustin May: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (62) vs RHP Zach Agnos: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (56) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.