Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, May 23, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Lucas Giolito. The lefty is going deep on .045 HR/PA against righties this year — and .042 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 4% of his trips. And Lucas Giolito has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Lucas Giolito too — .500 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (97) vs RHP Max Meyer: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (94) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (89) vs RHP Adrian Houser: real bat at .047 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- James Wood (WSH) (84) vs RHP Grant Holmes: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (82) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .040 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040), hot bat.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (80) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: solid bat at .039 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040), hot bat.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (79) vs RHP Adrian Houser: real bat at .048 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .102 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .084 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.