Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, May 24, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Sproat. The lefty is going deep on .030 HR/PA against righties this year — and .043 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Brandon Sproat has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Brandon Sproat, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (99) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (89) vs RHP Michael King: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (75) vs LHP Parker Messick: big-time bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (69) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: real bat at .045 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (65) vs RHP Dylan Cease: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.054).
- Jo Adell (LAA) (60) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: real bat at .045 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (58) vs LHP Jose Quintana: solid bat at .038 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .030 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .044 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year.
- Jo Adell (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .091 against lefties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.