Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is going deep on .030 HR/PA against righties this year — and .043 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been homer-prone to righties lately — .042 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 9 career PA against Tanner Gordon. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (90) vs RHP Michael Wacha: big-time bat at .053 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.100).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs RHP Griffin Canning: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (84) vs RHP Luis Castillo: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (71) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (69) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (68) vs RHP Ben Brown: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (65) vs RHP Landen Roupp: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .030 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .099 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .042 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.