Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, May 26, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. The lefty is going deep on .104 HR/PA against righties this year — and .067 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Randy Vásquez has been leaking power to righties lately — .038 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Randy Vásquez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (98) vs RHP Chase Burns: big-time bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (89) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (82) vs RHP Sean Burke: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (81) vs RHP Shane Baz: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (75) vs RHP Jack Leiter: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (72) vs LHP Gage Jump: real bat at .043 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (72) vs RHP Joe Ryan: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .104 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .081 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .097 against lefties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.