Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is going deep on .029 HR/PA against righties this year — and .048 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .625 across 8 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (87) vs RHP Walker Buehler: big-time bat at .055 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (80) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053), due to bounce back.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (75) vs LHP Noah Cameron: real bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (75) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.214).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (70) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.160).
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (62) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (62) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .029 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .101 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .070 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.