Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, May 30, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Roki Sasaki. The lefty is going deep on .099 HR/PA against righties this year — and .065 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Roki Sasaki has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Roki Sasaki too — .400 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (88) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: big-time bat at .051 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (77) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (73) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (73) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (72) vs RHP Mitch Keller: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (62) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: solid bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (61) vs RHP Adrian Houser: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .099 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .037 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.