Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, May 29, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zack Wheeler. The lefty is going deep on .034 HR/PA against righties this year — and .048 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Zack Wheeler has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Zack Wheeler too — .444 across 9 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (100) vs RHP Max Meyer: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (100) vs RHP Luis Severino: big-time bat at .052 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (95) vs RHP Jared Jones: big-time bat at .054 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (82) vs RHP Coleman Crow: real bat at .046 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (79) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (79) vs RHP Lucas Giolito: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (77) vs RHP Taj Bradley: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .034 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .088 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.