Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The lefty is going deep on .097 HR/PA against righties this year — and .033 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (99) vs RHP Andrew Painter: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (71) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (62) vs RHP Griffin Canning: real bat at .040 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (61) vs RHP Will Warren: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (58) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (56) vs RHP Jack Kochanowicz: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (56) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: solid bat at .038 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.030), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .097 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .039 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.