Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Drew Rasmussen. The lefty is going deep on .041 HR/PA against righties this year — and .048 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Drew Rasmussen has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Drew Rasmussen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (96) vs RHP Mitch Keller: real bat at .048 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (87) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: big-time bat at .053 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (82) vs RHP Michael Wacha: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (81) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (79) vs RHP Brady Singer: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (71) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: big-time bat at .051 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.214).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (69) vs LHP Framber Valdez: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .085 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.