Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top home runs spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The lefty is going deep on .052 HR/PA against righties this year — and .114 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jared Jones. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (99) vs RHP Nick Martinez: big-time bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (95) vs RHP Troy Melton: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (83) vs RHP Chase Burns: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.035).
- James Wood (WSH) (82) vs RHP Mitch Spence: real bat at .042 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (81) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (71) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.019), due to bounce back.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (64) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: real bat at .041 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.