Best MLB earned runs matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 2 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher earned runs Rate9.2% Runs / BF
vs LHB11.4%
vs RHB6.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.2 ER
Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness12.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)15.2%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)12.9%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)14.2%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)10.8%2.1
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)10.9%2.0
6. Brandon Marsh (L)13.1%2.0
7. Derek Hill (R)15.4%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)11.4%2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L)12.0%2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No ER recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026
Christian Scott (NYM) is the top earned runs spot on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.2 ER, with Aaron Nola (PHI) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Christian Scott
Christian Scott (NYM) tops the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.2 ER vs PHI. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Aaron Nola (PHI) (0) — about 3.4 ER vs NYM.
How to read the earned runs board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?
Christian Scott (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.2 ER against PHI.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Christian Scott (~2.2 ER), Aaron Nola (~3.4 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated?
Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
What the earned runs allowed board is
The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand.
The park.
Projected length of outing.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it
Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
