Earned Runs Board · Today
Best MLB earned runs matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
‹ Prev Sunday, July 12, 2026 Next › All Games 30 12 PM ET 2 1 PM ET 14 2 PM ET 8 4 PM ET 6 Lineups final Remaining Upcoming only
PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Tarik Skubal⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.7%
vs RHB 8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 23.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 13.9% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 12.1% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 9.1% 3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 10.8% 3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R) 8.2% 2.7
6. Bryson Stott (L) 9.3% 2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R) 9.2% 2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Derek Hill (R) 11.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tarik Skubal's full player page → 2
Joey Cantillo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.3%
vs RHB 9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.2 BF Expected batters faced 22.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 10.4% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 11.3% 3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L) 9.3% 3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R) 12.1% 3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R) 13.6% 2.2
6. Griffin Conine (L) 12.3% 2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 13.7% 2.0
8. Joe Mack (L) 10.7% 2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R) 9.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Joey Cantillo's full player page → 3
Ian Seymour⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.7%
vs RHB 7.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.4 BF Expected batters faced 18.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 10.1% 2.4
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 13.3% 2.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 10.5% 2.0
4. Cal Raleigh (R) 9.8% 2.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 9.8% 2.0
6. Luke Raley (L) 9.4% 2.0
7. Cole Young (L) 9.9% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 10.1% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 12.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ian Seymour's full player page → 4
Zack Wheeler⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.4%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 25.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Matt Vierling (R) 9.6% 3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L) 14.7% 3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R) 12.3% 3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R) 11.0% 3.0
5. Riley Greene (L) 14.1% 3.0
6. Eduardo Valencia (R) 11.7% 2.7
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R) 9.5% 2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L) 9.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zack Wheeler's full player page → 5
Cristian Javier⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 15.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 6.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 16.5 BF Expected batters faced 16.5
From recent starts 5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joc Pederson (L) 11.8% 2.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R) 12.9% 2.0
3. Josh Jung (R) 10.7% 2.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L) 9.2% 2.0
5. Jake Burger (R) 10.6% 2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 11.5% 2.0
7. Evan Carter (L) 11.4% 2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L) 10.4% 1.5
9. Elias Díaz (R) 9.4% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cristian Javier's full player page → 6
Emerson Hancock⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.7%
vs RHB 8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 11.4% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 11.4% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 13.5% 3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L) 12.5% 3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R) 11.5% 2.4
6. Chandler Simpson (L) 12.0% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 11.6% 2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L) 13.3% 2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R) 10.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Emerson Hancock's full player page → 7
Matthew Boyd⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.5%
vs RHB 10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.5 BF Expected batters faced 21.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (R) 13.0% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 11.0% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R) 13.2% 2.5
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L) 9.0% 2.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R) 10.4% 2.0
7. Jose Trevino (R) 12.1% 2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L) 11.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Matthew Boyd's full player page → 8
Emmet Sheehan⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.4%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.3 BF Expected batters faced 20.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 11.6% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 13.3% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 13.4% 2.3
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 11.2% 2.0
5. Max Kepler (L) 11.2% 2.0
6. Tim Tawa (R) 9.6% 2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 11.8% 2.0
8. James McCann (R) 9.7% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 12.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Emmet Sheehan's full player page → 9
JR Ritchie⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.3%
vs RHB 8.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.8 BF Expected batters faced 19.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 16.5% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 12.9% 2.8
3. Alec Burleson (L) 13.4% 2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 13.8% 2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 10.0% 2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 11.5% 2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L) 12.2% 2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R) 10.9% 2.0
9. Nathan Church (L) 11.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
JR Ritchie's full player page → 10
Tyler Phillips⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.3%
vs RHB 8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.1 BF Expected batters faced 22.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 10.9% 3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L) 10.5% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.7% 3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 11.6% 3.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L) 11.7% 2.1
6. Gabriel Arias (R) 11.8% 2.0
7. Petey Halpin (L) 12.9% 2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L) 9.8% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 10.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tyler Phillips's full player page → 11
Germán Márquez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.3%
vs RHB 10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.9 BF Expected batters faced 20.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 11.0% 3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L) 11.0% 3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 11.6% 2.9
4. George Springer (R) 13.7% 2.0
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 13.6% 2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L) 11.0% 2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R) 8.3% 2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L) 9.3% 2.0
9. Jonatan Clase (L) 12.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Germán Márquez's full player page → 12
Payton Tolle⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.8%
vs RHB 8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 10.7% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 11.3% 3.0
3. Francisco Lindor (R) 13.5% 3.0
4. Carson Benge (L) 12.9% 3.0
5. Jorge Polanco (R) 11.1% 3.0
6. Eric Wagaman (R) 11.1% 2.2
7. Francisco Alvarez (R) 9.5% 2.0
8. Brett Baty (L) 13.8% 2.0
9. Zack Short (R) 12.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Payton Tolle's full player page → 13
Cade Cavalli⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.3%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.6 BF Expected batters faced 21.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Amed Rosario (R) 13.2% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 15.6% 3.0
3. Trent Grisham (L) 15.8% 3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 9.6% 2.6
5. Cody Bellinger (L) 10.3% 2.0
6. Jasson Domínguez (L) 11.2% 2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 13.3% 2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R) 10.8% 2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R) 11.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cade Cavalli's full player page → 14
Taj Bradley⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.3%
vs RHB 10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 13.6% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 14.4% 3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L) 9.4% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 11.2% 3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R) 11.8% 3.0
6. Jo Adell (R) 10.2% 2.2
7. Wade Meckler (L) 14.0% 2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R) 9.8% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 9.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Taj Bradley's full player page → 15
José Soriano⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.0%
vs RHB 8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 13.9% 3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L) 12.6% 3.0
3. Josh Bell (L) 12.6% 3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L) 15.3% 3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 11.3% 2.7
6. Victor Caratini (L) 9.6% 2.0
7. Alan Roden (L) 9.8% 2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L) 9.1% 2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R) 14.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
José Soriano's full player page → 16
Mitch Bratt⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.5 BF Expected batters faced 20.5
From recent starts 1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 13.0% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 13.8% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 11.3% 2.5
4. Mookie Betts (R) 11.0% 2.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 15.6% 2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L) 13.3% 2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R) 14.3% 2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L) 15.2% 2.0
9. Tommy Edman (R) 13.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Mitch Bratt's full player page → 17
Andrew Abbott⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.4%
vs RHB 9.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 13.0% 3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R) 14.1% 3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R) 11.3% 3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R) 13.0% 3.0
5. Michael Busch (L) 9.7% 3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 11.0% 2.6
7. Ian Happ (R) 12.4% 2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R) 16.4% 2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R) 12.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Andrew Abbott's full player page → 18
Robert Gasser⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.0%
vs RHB 11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (R) 12.6% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 11.5% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R) 12.4% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 13.9% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 12.8% 2.9
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 11.9% 2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L) 13.5% 2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R) 10.7% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 10.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Robert Gasser's full player page → 19
Zach Thornton⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.2 BF Expected batters faced 22.2
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (R) 12.8% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 13.6% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 15.4% 3.0
4. Caleb Durbin (R) 11.4% 3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 10.9% 2.2
6. Andruw Monasterio (R) 14.2% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 11.4% 2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R) 12.8% 2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 12.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zach Thornton's full player page → 20
Shane Baz⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.4 BF Expected batters faced 25.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 11.0% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 12.8% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 12.1% 3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 9.9% 3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L) 11.3% 3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R) 8.5% 3.0
7. Michael Massey (L) 12.9% 3.0
8. Nick Loftin (R) 12.1% 2.4
9. Isaac Collins (L) 12.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Baz's full player page → 21
J.T. Ginn⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.3%
vs RHB 10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.9 BF Expected batters faced 23.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Randal Grichuk (R) 13.2% 3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L) 16.2% 3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R) 14.9% 3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 12.5% 3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R) 13.6% 3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L) 12.6% 2.9
7. Luisangel Acuña (R) 14.9% 2.0
8. Junior Perez (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Drew Romo (L) 10.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
J.T. Ginn's full player page → 22
Kevin Gausman⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.3%
vs RHB 13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 12.2% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 12.6% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 10.9% 3.0
4. Manny Machado (R) 12.4% 3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L) 11.4% 3.0
6. Ty France (R) 10.2% 2.3
7. Jake Cronenworth (L) 11.2% 2.0
8. Luis Campusano (R) 14.5% 2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L) 13.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kevin Gausman's full player page → 23
Paul Skenes⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.2%
vs RHB 11.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.4 BF Expected batters faced 23.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 14.3% 3.0
2. Garrett Mitchell (L) 15.1% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 14.8% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 11.1% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 16.0% 3.0
6. Luis Lara (L) 11.7% 2.4
7. Cooper Pratt (R) 12.2% 2.0
8. Sal Frelick (L) 11.5% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 11.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Paul Skenes's full player page → 24
Seth Lugo⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.1%
vs RHB 12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 14.5% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L) 11.0% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 11.4% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 13.3% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 11.9% 3.0
6. Tyler O'Neill (R) 10.1% 2.1
7. Coby Mayo (R) 9.8% 2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L) 11.4% 2.0
9. Leody Taveras (L) 13.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Seth Lugo's full player page → 25
Noah Schultz⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.2%
vs RHB 14.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jacob Wilson (R) 11.7% 3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L) 10.4% 3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R) 13.7% 3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R) 12.2% 2.9
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 11.7% 2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L) 10.1% 2.0
7. Carlos Cortes (L) 11.4% 2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L) 10.8% 2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R) 12.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Noah Schultz's full player page → 26
Michael Lorenzen⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.1%
vs RHB 12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.6 BF Expected batters faced 22.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 12.5% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 11.9% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 11.3% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 16.0% 3.0
5. Willy Adames (R) 11.5% 2.6
6. Bryce Eldridge (L) 10.7% 2.0
7. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 12.7% 2.0
8. Jesus Rodriguez (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L) 11.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Michael Lorenzen's full player page → 27
Dustin May⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.0%
vs RHB 11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.2 BF Expected batters faced 21.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Michael Harris II (L) 13.3% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 16.2% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 15.4% 3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L) 13.4% 2.2
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 12.6% 2.0
6. Austin Riley (R) 10.5% 2.0
7. Eli White (R) 14.2% 2.0
8. Joey Bart (R) 12.5% 2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R) 14.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Dustin May's full player page → 28
MacKenzie Gore⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 14.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jeremy Peña (R) 12.3% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 11.4% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 9.7% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 13.2% 3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R) 11.9% 3.0
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 11.5% 3.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R) 12.8% 2.5
8. Taylor Trammell (L) 12.6% 2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R) 9.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
MacKenzie Gore's full player page → 29
Trevor McDonald⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 16.8%
vs RHB 8.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 12.6% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 14.1% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 15.4% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 13.1% 2.9
5. Kyle Karros (R) 15.8% 2.0
6. Troy Johnston (L) 12.3% 2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L) 13.0% 2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 10.1% 2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L) 10.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Trevor McDonald's full player page → 30
Will Warren⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.7%
vs RHB 11.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 19.2% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 16.2% 3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R) 12.0% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 14.3% 3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L) 13.2% 3.0
6. Dylan Crews (R) 12.3% 2.5
7. Jorbit Vivas (L) 9.7% 2.0
8. Drew Millas (L) 11.4% 2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L) 12.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Will Warren's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 12, 2026 Tarik Skubal (DET) is the top earned runs spot on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.0 ER, with Joey Cantillo (CLE) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tarik Skubal Tarik Skubal (DET) tops the Sunday, July 12, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.0 ER vs PHI. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Joey Cantillo (CLE) (98) — about 2.0 ER vs MIA. Ian Seymour (TB) (90) — about 2.1 ER vs SEA. Zack Wheeler (PHI) (88) — about 2.1 ER vs DET. Cristian Javier (HOU) (86) — about 2.2 ER vs TEX. Emerson Hancock (SEA) (85) — about 2.2 ER vs TB. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Sunday, July 12, 2026)? Tarik Skubal (DET) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.0 ER against PHI.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Sunday, July 12, 2026: Tarik Skubal (~2.0 ER), Joey Cantillo (~2.0 ER), Ian Seymour (~2.1 ER), Zack Wheeler (~2.1 ER), Cristian Javier (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
