Earned Runs Board · Today
Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 11, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Bryan Hudson⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.6%
vs RHB 8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 9.5 BF Expected batters faced 9.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 0.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Lawrence Butler (L) 10.1% 1.4
2. Shea Langeliers (R) 13.6% 1.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L) 10.4% 1.0
4. Jonah Heim (R) 12.2% 1.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R) 11.7% 1.0
6. Joey Meneses (R) 11.3% 1.0
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 11.7% 1.0
8. Henry Bolte (R) 12.0% 1.0
9. Jeff McNeil (L) 11.4% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bryan Hudson's full player page → 2
Reynaldo López⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.0%
vs RHB 9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 14.3 BF Expected batters faced 14.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 16.0% 2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 13.0% 2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L) 13.6% 2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 14.0% 2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 10.1% 2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 11.6% 1.3
7. Bryan Torres (L) 12.3% 1.0
8. José Fermín (R) 8.1% 1.0
9. Nathan Church (L) 11.0% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Reynaldo López's full player page → 3
Eury Pérez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.1%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.4 BF Expected batters faced 21.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 11.2% 3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L) 10.2% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.4% 3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 11.9% 2.4
5. Rhys Hoskins (R) 10.6% 2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L) 11.7% 2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L) 9.8% 2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R) 12.2% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 10.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Eury Pérez's full player page → 4
Joe Ryan⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.7%
vs RHB 7.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.4 BF Expected batters faced 24.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 13.9% 3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L) 9.6% 3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R) 11.3% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 10.8% 3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L) 11.4% 3.0
6. Jo Adell (R) 10.4% 3.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R) 9.5% 2.4
8. Wade Meckler (L) 13.6% 2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L) 11.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Joe Ryan's full player page → 5
Javier Assad⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.7%
vs RHB 8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.6 BF Expected batters faced 18.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (L) 13.0% 2.6
2. Sal Stewart (R) 13.6% 2.0
3. Spencer Steer (R) 12.9% 2.0
4. JJ Bleday (L) 10.9% 2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R) 10.9% 2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R) 9.8% 2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R) 11.8% 2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 9.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Javier Assad's full player page → 6
Yoshinobu Yamamoto⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.8%
vs RHB 7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.7 BF Expected batters faced 24.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 11.4% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 13.2% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 12.6% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 11.3% 3.0
5. Max Kepler (L) 11.2% 3.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 10.0% 3.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 10.8% 2.7
8. Tommy Troy (R) 12.6% 2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R) 8.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page → 7
Griffin Jax⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.9%
vs RHB 12.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.8 BF Expected batters faced 19.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 10.8% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 15.2% 2.8
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 12.8% 2.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 11.3% 2.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 11.0% 2.0
6. Luke Raley (L) 9.8% 2.0
7. Cole Young (L) 12.9% 2.0
8. Miles Mastrobuoni (L) 10.4% 2.0
9. Buddy Kennedy (R) 10.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Jax's full player page → 8
Casey Mize⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.8%
vs RHB 9.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.1 BF Expected batters faced 21.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 15.9% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 13.5% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 14.7% 3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 13.7% 2.1
5. Alec Bohm (R) 11.1% 2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L) 11.7% 2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Derek Hill (R) 15.3% 2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L) 9.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Casey Mize's full player page → 9
Brandon Pfaadt⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.3%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 15.8 BF Expected batters faced 15.8
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 15.3% 2.0
2. Tommy Edman (L) 12.9% 2.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 12.8% 2.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 14.3% 2.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 13.4% 2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R) 12.5% 2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L) 13.8% 1.8
8. Alex Call (R) 11.8% 1.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L) 11.7% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Pfaadt's full player page → 10
Cam Schlittler⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.6%
vs RHB 7.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 19.2% 3.0
2. Curtis Mead (R) 12.1% 3.0
3. Dylan Crews (R) 12.4% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 14.3% 3.0
5. Jacob Young (R) 11.2% 3.0
6. Andrés Chaparro (R) 10.6% 2.5
7. Nasim Nuñez (L) 12.7% 2.0
8. Luis García Jr. (L) 16.3% 2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L) 13.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cam Schlittler's full player page → 11
Kumar Rocker⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.2%
vs RHB 9.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.5 BF Expected batters faced 21.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jeremy Peña (R) 14.9% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 13.7% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 11.5% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 11.2% 2.5
5. Jose Altuve (R) 13.7% 2.0
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 10.9% 2.0
7. Cam Smith (R) 11.8% 2.0
8. Yainer Diaz (R) 11.0% 2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R) 12.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kumar Rocker's full player page → 12
Peter Lambert⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.5%
vs RHB 12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joc Pederson (L) 12.0% 3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R) 12.6% 3.0
3. Josh Jung (R) 10.3% 3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L) 9.3% 3.0
5. Jake Burger (R) 11.1% 3.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 11.5% 2.3
7. Evan Carter (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L) 10.8% 2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R) 12.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Peter Lambert's full player page → 13
Noah Cameron⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.8%
vs RHB 11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 9.2% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R) 9.9% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 11.6% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 10.7% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 8.3% 3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 11.0% 2.2
7. Colton Cowser (L) 10.2% 2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R) 9.0% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 11.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Noah Cameron's full player page → 14
Trey Yesavage⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.1%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 12.4% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 12.4% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 10.6% 3.0
4. Manny Machado (R) 12.6% 3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L) 11.6% 3.0
6. Jake Cronenworth (L) 11.3% 3.0
7. Luis Campusano (R) 13.8% 2.2
8. Miguel Andujar (R) 10.9% 2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L) 13.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Trey Yesavage's full player page → 15
Freddy Peralta⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.9%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.8 BF Expected batters faced 22.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (L) 14.0% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 11.2% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 10.0% 3.0
4. Romy Gonzalez (R) 11.2% 3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 12.3% 2.8
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 13.3% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 11.5% 2.0
8. Connor Wong (R) 9.5% 2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 12.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Freddy Peralta's full player page → 16
Shane Drohan⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.9 BF Expected batters faced 20.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (R) 12.6% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 11.5% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R) 12.4% 2.9
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 13.9% 2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 12.8% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 11.9% 2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L) 13.5% 2.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R) 12.6% 2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R) 10.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Drohan's full player page → 17
Ryan Johnson⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.2%
vs RHB 12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 17.5 BF Expected batters faced 17.5
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 13.6% 2.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R) 14.9% 2.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 15.7% 2.0
4. Josh Bell (L) 12.8% 2.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 11.7% 2.0
6. Brooks Lee (L) 12.8% 2.0
7. Alan Roden (L) 10.1% 2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L) 9.3% 2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R) 14.7% 1.5
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ryan Johnson's full player page → 18
Kyle Bradish⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.3%
vs RHB 11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 11.6% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 13.1% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 10.1% 3.0
5. Michael Massey (L) 12.6% 3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R) 8.7% 3.0
7. Josh Rojas (L) 11.4% 2.5
8. Nick Loftin (R) 12.3% 2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L) 12.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Bradish's full player page → 19
Logan Gilbert⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.1%
vs RHB 8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 11.9% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 12.1% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 14.1% 3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L) 12.7% 3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L) 11.4% 3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 13.2% 2.6
7. Taylor Walls (L) 15.6% 2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L) 13.1% 2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L) 11.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Logan Gilbert's full player page → 20
Matthew Liberatore⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.1%
vs RHB 11.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.2 BF Expected batters faced 21.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Michael Harris II (L) 10.6% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R) 9.7% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 13.0% 3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L) 13.7% 2.2
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 10.4% 2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 10.9% 2.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 10.9% 2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Matthew Liberatore's full player page → 21
Nick Lodolo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.2%
vs RHB 10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 13.0% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 11.4% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 9.6% 3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R) 14.1% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (R) 12.4% 3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 11.0% 2.5
7. Michael Conforto (L) 14.9% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 13.1% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 16.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nick Lodolo's full player page → 22
Cristopher Sánchez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 12.4% 3.0
2. Colt Keith (L) 13.0% 3.0
3. Riley Greene (L) 9.2% 3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R) 13.3% 3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L) 12.6% 3.0
6. Eduardo Valencia (R) 11.7% 3.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 14.4% 2.5
8. James Outman (L) 16.8% 2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R) 13.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cristopher Sánchez's full player page → 23
Gage Jump⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.0%
vs RHB 11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Sam Antonacci (L) 11.1% 3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L) 12.2% 3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R) 12.6% 3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 10.4% 3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (R) 11.2% 2.5
6. Chase Meidroth (R) 13.2% 2.0
7. Andrew Benintendi (L) 12.6% 2.0
8. Kyle Teel (L) 10.2% 2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L) 11.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Gage Jump's full player page → 24
Braxton Ashcraft
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.5%
vs RHB 9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 14.3% 3.0
2. Garrett Mitchell (L) 15.1% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 14.7% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 11.1% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 16.0% 3.0
6. Luis Lara (L) 11.7% 3.0
7. Cooper Pratt (R) 12.2% 2.0
8. Sal Frelick (L) 11.5% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 11.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -120 -110
FAN Fanatics -125 -115
We project 2.9 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Braxton Ashcraft's full player page → 25
Tanner Bibee⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.3%
vs RHB 10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.6 BF Expected batters faced 22.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Otto Lopez (R) 15.1% 3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R) 10.8% 3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L) 11.9% 3.0
4. Javier Sanoja (R) 12.4% 3.0
5. Kyle Stowers (L) 14.2% 2.6
6. Leo Jiménez (R) 11.4% 2.0
7. Esteury Ruiz (R) 16.2% 2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L) 11.5% 2.0
9. Joe Mack (L) 14.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tanner Bibee's full player page → 26
Brandon Sproat
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.5%
vs RHB 12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.2 BF Expected batters faced 21.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 12.6% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 13.6% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 15.3% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 15.0% 2.2
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 14.7% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 13.1% 2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L) 12.0% 2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R) 12.1% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 12.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -165 +125
We project 3.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Brandon Sproat's full player page → 27
Bubba Chandler⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 15.4%
vs RHB 7.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.4 BF Expected batters faced 23.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Garrett Mitchell (L) 15.1% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 14.6% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 14.7% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 11.1% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 16.0% 3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R) 9.5% 2.4
7. Sal Frelick (L) 11.5% 2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R) 12.2% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 11.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bubba Chandler's full player page → 28
Walker Buehler⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.1%
vs RHB 17.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 10.6% 3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L) 11.1% 3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 11.2% 3.0
4. George Springer (R) 13.8% 3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L) 11.1% 2.0
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 13.1% 2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R) 8.4% 2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (L) 13.1% 2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L) 9.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Walker Buehler's full player page → 29
Miles Mikolas⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 15.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.9%
vs RHB 17.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Amed Rosario (R) 13.1% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 15.7% 3.0
3. Trent Grisham (L) 16.1% 3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 9.8% 3.0
5. Cody Bellinger (L) 10.4% 2.7
6. Jasson Domínguez (L) 10.6% 2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 13.9% 2.0
8. José Caballero (R) 10.9% 2.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 9.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Miles Mikolas's full player page → 30
Tyler Mahle⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.6%
vs RHB 13.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 12.7% 3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R) 16.1% 3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L) 17.5% 3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R) 15.4% 3.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L) 13.1% 2.5
6. Tyler Freeman (R) 10.0% 2.0
7. Willi Castro (L) 11.1% 2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 10.1% 2.0
9. Braxton Fulford (R) 15.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tyler Mahle's full player page → 31
Kyle Freeland⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 15.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.7%
vs RHB 14.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 15.2% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 10.8% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 11.4% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 8.4% 3.0
5. Willy Adames (R) 14.0% 3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L) 13.4% 2.8
7. Victor Bericoto (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 9.7% 2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Freeland's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 11, 2026 Bryan Hudson (CWS) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, July 11, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER, with Reynaldo López (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Bryan Hudson Bryan Hudson (CWS) tops the Saturday, July 11, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER vs ATH. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Reynaldo López (ATL) (79) — about 1.4 ER vs STL. Eury Pérez (MIA) (61) — about 2.0 ER vs CLE. Joe Ryan (MIN) (60) — about 2.0 ER vs LAA. Javier Assad (CHC) (57) — about 2.1 ER vs CIN. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) (57) — about 2.1 ER vs AZ. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, July 11, 2026)? Bryan Hudson (CWS) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 0.8 ER against ATH.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Saturday, July 11, 2026: Bryan Hudson (~0.8 ER), Reynaldo López (~1.4 ER), Eury Pérez (~2.0 ER), Joe Ryan (~2.0 ER), Javier Assad (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
