Earned Runs Board · Today
Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 10, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Cal Quantrill⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 13.7 BF Expected batters faced 13.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jose Altuve (R) 11.7% 2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 11.7% 2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 11.7% 2.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 11.7% 2.0
5. Cam Smith (R) 11.7% 1.7
6. Yainer Diaz (R) 11.7% 1.0
7. Brice Matthews (R) 11.7% 1.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R) 11.7% 1.0
9. Nick Allen (R) 11.7% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cal Quantrill's full player page → 2
Carson Palmquist⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 15.6%
vs RHB 11.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 13.9 BF Expected batters faced 13.9
From recent starts 4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 13.0% 2.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 11.8% 2.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (R) 10.5% 2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 10.5% 2.0
5. José Caballero (R) 12.9% 1.9
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 9.8% 1.0
7. Max Schuemann (R) 15.3% 1.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L) 8.1% 1.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 8.6% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Carson Palmquist's full player page → 3
Chris Sale⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.4%
vs RHB 8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 9.7% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 12.6% 3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L) 10.1% 3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 16.2% 3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 11.3% 3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 12.8% 3.0
7. Bryan Torres (L) 12.5% 2.5
8. José Fermín (R) 12.9% 2.0
9. Nathan Church (L) 12.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Chris Sale's full player page → 4
Nick Martinez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.0%
vs RHB 8.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 11.4% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 14.4% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 12.4% 3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 11.4% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 10.5% 3.0
6. Luke Raley (L) 9.9% 2.7
7. Cole Young (L) 13.1% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 11.3% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 10.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nick Martinez's full player page → 5
Sonny Gray⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.5%
vs RHB 8.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 13.6% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 14.0% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 11.9% 3.0
4. Carson Benge (L) 12.6% 3.0
5. Francisco Alvarez (R) 10.3% 3.0
6. Jared Young (L) 11.9% 3.0
7. Mark Vientos (R) 9.5% 2.1
8. Brett Baty (L) 10.0% 2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sonny Gray's full player page → 6
Robbie Ray⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.8%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 12.1% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 11.4% 3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (R) 17.0% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 9.0% 3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R) 12.5% 3.0
6. Troy Johnston (L) 7.9% 2.6
7. Edouard Julien (L) 16.2% 2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 12.3% 2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L) 10.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Robbie Ray's full player page → 7
Parker Messick⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.1%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 10.4% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 11.6% 3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (R) 12.4% 3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L) 9.7% 3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R) 13.0% 3.0
6. Griffin Conine (L) 12.2% 3.0
7. Esteury Ruiz (R) 14.6% 2.2
8. Jakob Marsee (L) 13.9% 2.0
9. Leo Jiménez (R) 10.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Parker Messick's full player page → 8
Hunter Brown⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Justin Foscue (R) 11.7% 3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R) 13.0% 3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L) 9.2% 3.0
4. Josh Jung (R) 10.3% 2.9
5. Jake Burger (R) 11.0% 2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 11.5% 2.0
7. Kyle Higashioka (R) 12.2% 2.0
8. Cam Cauley (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L) 10.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hunter Brown's full player page → 9
Jack Flaherty⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.2%
vs RHB 10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.3 BF Expected batters faced 21.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 16.2% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 13.7% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 14.9% 3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 14.3% 2.3
5. Alec Bohm (R) 11.6% 2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L) 12.2% 2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R) 11.2% 2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L) 9.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jack Flaherty's full player page → 10
Sean Burke⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.1%
vs RHB 10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 11.7% 3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L) 13.8% 3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R) 10.7% 3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L) 11.0% 3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R) 10.7% 3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R) 13.3% 2.3
7. Colby Thomas (R) 10.4% 2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R) 9.9% 2.0
9. Alika Williams (R) 14.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Burke's full player page → 11
Eduardo Rodriguez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.2%
vs RHB 7.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 12.6% 3.0
2. Tommy Edman (R) 14.0% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 11.6% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 11.3% 3.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 15.5% 3.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R) 14.7% 2.5
7. Kyle Tucker (L) 13.7% 2.0
8. Alex Call (R) 13.1% 2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page → 12
Luinder Avila⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.1%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 5.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.5 BF Expected batters faced 19.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Adley Rutschman (L) 11.2% 3.0
2. Taylor Ward (R) 11.9% 2.5
3. Gunnar Henderson (L) 14.7% 2.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 14.3% 2.0
5. Tyler O'Neill (R) 10.2% 2.0
6. Coby Mayo (R) 9.7% 2.0
7. Samuel Basallo (L) 13.0% 2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R) 13.3% 2.0
9. Leody Taveras (L) 13.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Luinder Avila's full player page → 13
Nolan McLean⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.6%
vs RHB 10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.4 BF Expected batters faced 23.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (L) 14.1% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 11.3% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 10.0% 3.0
4. Romy Gonzalez (R) 11.4% 3.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R) 13.5% 3.0
6. Andruw Monasterio (R) 8.9% 2.4
7. Nate Eaton (R) 12.6% 2.0
8. Brett Harris (R) 11.2% 2.0
9. Connor Wong (R) 9.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nolan McLean's full player page → 14
Luis Castillo⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.1 BF Expected batters faced 21.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 12.0% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 12.3% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 13.8% 3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 13.3% 2.1
5. Ryan Vilade (R) 11.0% 2.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L) 11.5% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 11.8% 2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L) 15.7% 2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R) 10.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Luis Castillo's full player page → 15
Ryan Weathers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.4%
vs RHB 11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.8 BF Expected batters faced 22.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 11.7% 3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L) 11.7% 2.8
6. Dylan Crews (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. José Tena (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ryan Weathers's full player page → 16
Shohei Ohtani⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 11.6% 3.0
2. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 10.7% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 12.8% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 11.8% 3.0
5. Max Kepler (L) 10.4% 3.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 10.1% 3.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 10.9% 2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L) 8.9% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 12.3% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shohei Ohtani's full player page → 17
Kyle Leahy⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.2%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Michael Harris II (L) 13.2% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 15.6% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 15.0% 3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L) 13.3% 3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 13.2% 2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 13.1% 2.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 11.0% 2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 12.1% 2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Leahy's full player page → 18
Shane Bieber⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.2 BF Expected batters faced 22.2
From recent starts 3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 13.0% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 12.6% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 10.8% 3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Jake Cronenworth (L) 11.5% 2.2
6. Luis Campusano (R) 14.2% 2.0
7. Miguel Andujar (R) 11.0% 2.0
8. Jase Bowen (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L) 13.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Bieber's full player page → 19
Braxton Ashcraft⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.8%
vs RHB 9.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Garrett Mitchell (L) 14.8% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 14.1% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 13.9% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 11.6% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 15.4% 3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R) 9.0% 2.8
7. Sal Frelick (L) 11.6% 2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R) 12.5% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 11.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Braxton Ashcraft's full player page → 20
Sandy Alcantara⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.0%
vs RHB 12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 26.7 BF Expected batters faced 26.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 11.4% 3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L) 10.7% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.5% 3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 11.9% 3.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L) 11.7% 3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R) 11.1% 3.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L) 9.8% 3.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L) 9.1% 3.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 10.3% 2.7
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sandy Alcantara's full player page → 21
Shota Imanaga⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.5%
vs RHB 10.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.6 BF Expected batters faced 22.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (R) 12.7% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 11.5% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 12.4% 3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R) 13.8% 3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R) 10.9% 2.6
6. Tyler Stephenson (R) 10.9% 2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R) 12.6% 2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L) 11.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shota Imanaga's full player page → 22
JP Sears⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.6%
vs RHB 12.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 11.7% 3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L) 11.7% 3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. George Springer (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L) 11.7% 2.7
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
JP Sears's full player page → 23
Brandon Young⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.7%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.6 BF Expected batters faced 24.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Lane Thomas (R) 10.2% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 13.2% 3.0
3. Salvador Perez (R) 8.6% 3.0
4. Starling Marte (R) 11.8% 3.0
5. Nick Loftin (R) 12.1% 3.0
6. Jac Caglianone (L) 12.0% 3.0
7. Isaac Collins (L) 11.8% 2.6
8. Tyler Tolbert (R) 22.0% 2.0
9. Luke Maile (R) 13.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Young's full player page → 24
Jacob Lopez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.8%
vs RHB 14.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.3 BF Expected batters faced 19.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Chase Meidroth (R) 13.5% 3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R) 11.7% 2.3
3. Miguel Vargas (R) 12.8% 2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 10.6% 2.0
5. Junior Perez (R) 11.7% 2.0
6. Sam Antonacci (L) 11.5% 2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R) 9.4% 2.0
9. Drew Romo (R) 9.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jacob Lopez's full player page → 25
Brandon Sproat⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.5%
vs RHB 12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.9 BF Expected batters faced 20.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 12.6% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 14.1% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 15.2% 2.9
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 14.8% 2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 15.3% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 13.3% 2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L) 12.7% 2.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R) 12.4% 2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R) 11.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Sproat's full player page → 26
Zebby Matthews⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.8%
vs RHB 11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 13.6% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 14.0% 3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L) 10.1% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 11.3% 3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R) 12.2% 3.0
6. Josh Lowe (L) 11.5% 3.0
7. Denzer Guzman (R) 9.0% 2.5
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 9.4% 2.0
9. Wade Meckler (L) 12.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zebby Matthews's full player page → 27
Aaron Nola⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.8%
vs RHB 13.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 14.3% 3.0
2. Matt Vierling (R) 9.9% 3.0
3. Spencer Torkelson (R) 10.6% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 13.7% 3.0
5. Hao-Yu Lee (R) 9.6% 2.7
6. Kerry Carpenter (L) 12.2% 2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 9.4% 2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R) 10.0% 2.0
9. James Outman (L) 9.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Aaron Nola's full player page → 28
Tanner Gordon⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 16.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.7%
vs RHB 15.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.3 BF Expected batters faced 20.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 12.6% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 11.5% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 10.6% 2.3
4. Rafael Devers (L) 16.2% 2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 13.4% 2.0
6. Willy Adames (R) 11.5% 2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 10.6% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 11.9% 2.0
9. Eric Haase (R) 12.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tanner Gordon's full player page → 29
Hunter Greene⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 16.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.8%
vs RHB 13.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.2 BF Expected batters faced 22.2
From recent starts 1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 14.9% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 10.7% 3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R) 12.3% 3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R) 12.2% 3.0
5. Michael Busch (L) 11.1% 2.3
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 10.8% 2.0
7. Ian Happ (L) 13.8% 2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R) 15.4% 2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R) 15.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hunter Greene's full player page → 30
Grayson Rodriguez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 16.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 18.1%
vs RHB 11.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.3 BF Expected batters faced 21.3
From recent starts 6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 13.7% 3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L) 13.3% 3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 15.8% 3.0
4. Josh Bell (L) 13.0% 2.3
5. Royce Lewis (R) 10.6% 2.0
6. Alan Roden (L) 10.6% 2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R) 14.9% 2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L) 9.8% 2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R) 12.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Grayson Rodriguez's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026 Cal Quantrill (TEX) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, July 10, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER, with Carson Palmquist (WSH) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Cal Quantrill Cal Quantrill (TEX) tops the Friday, July 10, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER vs HOU. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Carson Palmquist (WSH) (81) — about 1.9 ER vs NYY. Chris Sale (ATL) (74) — about 2.1 ER vs STL. Nick Martinez (TB) (72) — about 2.2 ER vs SEA. Sonny Gray (BOS) (72) — about 2.2 ER vs NYM. Robbie Ray (SF) (65) — about 2.3 ER vs COL. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, July 10, 2026)? Cal Quantrill (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER against HOU.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Friday, July 10, 2026: Cal Quantrill (~1.5 ER), Carson Palmquist (~1.9 ER), Chris Sale (~2.1 ER), Nick Martinez (~2.2 ER), Sonny Gray (~2.2 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
