Hits Allowed Board · Today
Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 16 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Reynaldo López⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.5%
vs RHB 21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 20.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 12.8 BF Expected batters faced 12.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Francisco Lindor (L) 24.7% 2.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 22.8% 2.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 26.1% 2.0
4. Mark Vientos (R) 20.2% 1.8
5. Carson Benge (L) 23.3% 1.0
6. Tyrone Taylor (R) 21.0% 1.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L) 23.8% 1.0
8. Luis Torrens (R) 20.5% 1.0
9. Brett Baty (L) 21.7% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Reynaldo López's full player page → 2
Brandon Pfaadt⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.7%
vs RHB 25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 13.2 BF Expected batters faced 13.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 24.7% 2.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L) 19.6% 2.0
3. Manny Machado (R) 23.0% 2.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L) 22.2% 2.0
5. Ty France (R) 22.1% 1.2
6. Jackson Merrill (L) 22.9% 1.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 23.2% 1.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L) 22.7% 1.0
9. Luis Campusano (R) 20.1% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Pfaadt's full player page → 3
Griffin Jax⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.3%
vs RHB 18.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 22.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.8 BF Expected batters faced 19.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 20.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 21.0% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 21.7% 2.8
3. Jasson Domínguez (L) 22.8% 2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 21.4% 2.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R) 19.9% 2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 21.6% 2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R) 19.7% 2.0
8. Austin Wells (L) 18.9% 2.0
9. José Caballero (R) 21.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Jax's full player page → 4
Shane Drohan⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.5 BF Expected batters faced 19.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 22.1% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 23.0% 2.5
3. Alec Burleson (L) 21.2% 2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 24.2% 2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 20.9% 2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 23.6% 2.0
7. Nathan Church (L) 24.9% 2.0
8. José Fermín (R) 23.2% 2.0
9. Bryan Torres (L) 20.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Drohan's full player page → 5
Cam Schlittler⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 19.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.1%
vs RHB 19.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.4 BF Expected batters faced 23.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 26.7% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 26.3% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 24.4% 3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L) 19.6% 3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L) 27.6% 3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R) 22.1% 2.4
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 17.5% 2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L) 19.6% 2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L) 19.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cam Schlittler's full player page → 6
Walker Buehler⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.4% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.1%
vs RHB 22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.8 BF Expected batters faced 21.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 23.5% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 21.0% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 21.3% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 24.8% 2.8
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 22.1% 2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 22.6% 2.0
7. Tim Tawa (R) 17.1% 2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L) 21.0% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 18.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Walker Buehler's full player page → 7
Freddy Peralta⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.8%
vs RHB 20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Drake Baldwin (L) 22.5% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 20.8% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 22.7% 3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L) 25.1% 3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 23.4% 3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 25.6% 2.5
7. Austin Riley (R) 21.9% 2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 21.1% 2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Freddy Peralta's full player page → 8
Dustin May⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.5%
vs RHB 22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Brice Turang (L) 23.8% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 24.2% 3.0
3. Christian Yelich (L) 22.2% 3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R) 22.0% 2.9
5. Jake Bauers (L) 20.6% 2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L) 22.5% 2.0
7. Gary Sánchez (R) 19.0% 2.0
8. David Hamilton (L) 20.4% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 19.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Dustin May's full player page → 9
Noah Cameron⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.3%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 24.4% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 21.8% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 23.6% 3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 21.4% 3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R) 24.3% 2.9
6. Bryson Stott (L) 21.9% 2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L) 20.1% 2.0
9. Garrett Stubbs (L) 21.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Noah Cameron's full player page → 10
Eric Lauer⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.6%
vs RHB 21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 25.7% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 20.6% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 24.5% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 24.3% 3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L) 21.1% 2.4
6. Kyle Karros (R) 23.5% 2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L) 19.9% 2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L) 23.0% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 22.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Eric Lauer's full player page → 11
Kevin Gausman⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.5%
vs RHB 22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.4 BF Expected batters faced 23.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Luis Arraez (L) 29.1% 3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R) 23.7% 3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R) 22.9% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 22.6% 3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 25.7% 3.0
6. Willy Adames (R) 22.5% 2.4
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 20.9% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 21.5% 2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kevin Gausman's full player page → 12
Cristopher Sánchez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.2%
vs RHB 23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.1 BF Expected batters faced 25.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 24.8% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 27.1% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 21.4% 3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 20.6% 3.0
5. Michael Massey (L) 22.3% 3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R) 23.1% 3.0
7. Josh Rojas (L) 17.9% 3.0
8. Kameron Misner (L) 18.4% 2.1
9. Isaac Collins (R) 20.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cristopher Sánchez's full player page → 13
Mike Burrows⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.9%
vs RHB 22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 21.2% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 26.6% 3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R) 21.1% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 22.1% 3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L) 26.0% 2.4
6. Dylan Crews (R) 18.7% 2.0
7. José Tena (L) 22.8% 2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L) 20.3% 2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L) 23.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Mike Burrows's full player page → 14
Landen Roupp⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.7%
vs RHB 24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.6 BF Expected batters faced 22.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Nathan Lukes (L) 25.0% 3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 25.7% 3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 21.3% 3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R) 24.3% 3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L) 20.7% 2.6
6. Ernie Clement (R) 25.6% 2.0
7. Sean Keys (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. Luis Urías (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Yohendrick Piñango (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Landen Roupp's full player page → 15
Miles Mikolas⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 26.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 25.4%
vs RHB 26.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.8 BF Expected batters faced 21.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jose Altuve (R) 22.6% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 24.5% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 20.3% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 21.1% 2.8
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 17.7% 2.0
6. Cam Smith (R) 20.5% 2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L) 20.5% 2.0
8. Nick Allen (R) 20.4% 2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R) 21.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Miles Mikolas's full player page → 16
Kyle Freeland⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 27.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 25.8%
vs RHB 27.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 6.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 24.0% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 26.8% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 23.9% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 22.1% 3.0
5. Teoscar Hernández (R) 23.8% 3.0
6. Alex Call (R) 25.0% 3.0
7. Miguel Rojas (R) 26.6% 2.2
8. Alex Freeland (R) 17.3% 2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Freeland's full player page → Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026 Reynaldo López (ATL) is the top hits allowed spot on the Monday, July 6, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.8 H, with Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Reynaldo López Reynaldo López (ATL) tops the Monday, July 6, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.8 H vs NYM. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) (90) — about 3.3 H vs SD. Griffin Jax (TB) (67) — about 4.2 H vs NYY. Shane Drohan (MIL) (61) — about 4.4 H vs STL. Cam Schlittler (NYY) (52) — about 4.8 H vs TB. Walker Buehler (SD) (50) — about 4.9 H vs AZ. How to read the hits allowed board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)? Reynaldo López (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.8 H against NYM.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today? The top projected starts on Monday, July 6, 2026: Reynaldo López (~2.8 H), Brandon Pfaadt (~3.3 H), Griffin Jax (~4.2 H), Shane Drohan (~4.4 H), Cam Schlittler (~4.8 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated? Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the hits allowed board is The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His hit-suppression vs this lineup. The park. Projected batters faced. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.
How to use it Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
