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Hits Allowed Board · Archive

Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, July 6, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 4/5 (80%) on the mark, against 49% on the season.

Top 5
4/580%
season 49%
Top 10
5/956%
season 48%
Full slate
9/1560%
season 49%

Top call Brandon Pfaadt came through. Shane Drohan didn't.

Final · 1–15PHIPHIawayKCKChomeTop matchup35Final · 5–1NYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup59Final · 11–12HOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup36Final · 7–6NYMNYMawayATLATLhomeTop matchup100Final · 4–3MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup60Final · 8–0AZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup100Final · 1–10TORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup35Final · 7–8COLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup43
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.9%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.9%2.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.8%2.0
3. Manny Machado (R)22.7%2.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)22.4%2.0
5. Ty France (R)21.3%1.2
6. Jackson Merrill (L)22.6%1.0
7. Samad Taylor (R)22.8%1.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)23.0%1.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.5%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-145+105
DKDraftKings-141+106
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 3.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload12.8 BF

Expected batters faced12.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)23.0%2.0
2. Juan Soto (L)22.3%2.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)25.5%2.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)23.5%1.8
5. Carson Benge (L)23.0%1.0
6. Jared Young (L)21.3%1.0
7. Francisco Alvarez (R)21.5%1.0
8. Brett Baty (L)21.9%1.0
9. Ronny Mauricio (L)21.7%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-117-113
FANFanatics-125-115

We project 2.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)23.1%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)22.5%2.5
3. Jordan Walker (R)23.6%2.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)22.2%2.0
5. José Fermín (R)23.2%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)23.2%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)23.5%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.7%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-165+125
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-160+120

We project 4.5 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)21.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)21.4%2.8
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.4%2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)21.0%2.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.5%2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.3%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)20.9%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)20.2%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+122-162
FANFanatics-105-135

We project 4.3 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)23.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)21.4%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)21.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)24.1%2.8
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)22.1%2.0
6. Max Kepler (L)20.3%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)22.6%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)21.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-131-101

We project 4.9 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)22.5%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)23.6%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)24.2%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)23.9%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)22.5%2.4
6. Tyler Freeman (R)22.5%2.0
7. Jake McCarthy (L)25.4%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)22.2%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-113-118
FANFanatics-105-135

We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)24.6%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)21.2%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.7%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)22.0%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)24.0%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)24.2%2.5
7. Austin Riley (R)22.6%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.8%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-111-120

We project 5.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)20.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)26.9%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)22.1%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)22.2%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)19.4%2.4
6. Daylen Lile (L)25.3%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)21.8%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)21.3%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mike Burrows's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)23.1%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)21.3%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)23.4%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)22.9%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)22.3%2.9
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)23.3%2.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)22.2%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.7%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-161+121
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)24.5%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)24.3%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)24.5%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.7%3.0
5. Sean Keys (L)22.5%2.6
6. Alejandro Kirk (R)22.8%2.0
7. Daulton Varsho (L)20.8%2.0
8. Myles Straw (R)22.8%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+100-132

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)25.0%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)25.6%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)23.9%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)21.1%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)24.1%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)26.7%2.4
7. Nick Fortes (R)23.8%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)20.5%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+122-162

We project 5.2 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)22.8%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)27.0%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.9%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.6%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)24.2%3.0
6. Willy Adames (R)22.9%2.4
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)20.8%2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)22.5%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-113-117
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.9%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)21.4%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.9%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)24.9%2.9
5. Jake Bauers (L)21.6%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)22.5%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)23.7%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)20.7%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105

We project 5.3 H vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.9%
vs RHB25.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)22.4%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)24.0%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)22.0%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)21.2%2.8
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)19.0%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)20.9%2.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R)24.1%2.0
8. Braden Shewmake (L)23.5%2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 5.4 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.3%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)21.1%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)24.7%3.0
3. Salvador Perez (R)23.4%3.0
4. Jac Caglianone (L)21.9%3.0
5. Nick Loftin (R)20.6%3.0
6. Starling Marte (R)22.4%3.0
7. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.5%3.0
8. Luke Maile (R)22.5%2.1
9. Josh Rojas (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-134+101

We project 5.5 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate26.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.8%
vs RHB26.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.9%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)25.1%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)23.7%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)22.1%3.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)23.4%3.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.1%3.0
7. Max Muncy (L)21.6%2.2
8. Miguel Rojas (R)26.2%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+102-135

We project 6.4 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays