Hits Allowed Board · Today
Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Brandon Woodruff⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 17.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 17.1%
vs RHB 19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 23.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.8 BF Expected batters faced 20.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 23.4% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 21.2% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 21.6% 2.8
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 24.9% 2.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 22.5% 2.0
6. Adrian Del Castillo (L) 21.6% 2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 22.8% 2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L) 21.1% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 18.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Woodruff's full player page → 2
Hunter Greene⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 16.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 16.4%
vs RHB 17.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 24.1% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L) 19.2% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 20.0% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 23.5% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 22.0% 3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 20.5% 2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L) 20.8% 2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R) 22.9% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 22.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hunter Greene's full player page → 3
Sean Manaea⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.0%
vs RHB 20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.7 BF Expected batters faced 19.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Drake Baldwin (L) 24.0% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R) 25.9% 2.7
3. Matt Olson (L) 23.9% 2.0
4. Mauricio Dubón (R) 22.8% 2.0
5. Michael Harris II (L) 24.8% 2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 18.3% 2.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 22.4% 2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 17.4% 2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R) 23.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Manaea's full player page → 4
Sam Aldegheri⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.7%
vs RHB 22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.4 BF Expected batters faced 18.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (R) 24.8% 2.4
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 21.4% 2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 24.5% 2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 22.4% 2.0
5. Romy Gonzalez (R) 26.7% 2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 22.3% 2.0
7. Nate Eaton (R) 22.0% 2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R) 22.2% 2.0
9. Connor Wong (R) 21.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sam Aldegheri's full player page → 5
Drew Rasmussen⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 19.4% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.3%
vs RHB 18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jose Altuve (R) 22.9% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 24.2% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 20.5% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 21.3% 3.0
5. Cam Smith (R) 20.7% 3.0
6. Taylor Trammell (L) 20.7% 2.2
7. Yainer Diaz (R) 25.4% 2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R) 21.5% 2.0
9. Nick Allen (R) 20.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Drew Rasmussen's full player page → 6
Jack Flaherty⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.0%
vs RHB 21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 22.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.2 BF Expected batters faced 21.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Justin Foscue (R) 18.1% 3.0
2. Josh Jung (R) 24.3% 3.0
3. Ezequiel Duran (R) 23.5% 3.0
4. Jake Burger (R) 23.2% 2.2
5. Kyle Higashioka (R) 21.0% 2.0
6. Cam Cauley (R) 22.5% 2.0
7. Elias Díaz (R) 20.8% 2.0
8. Alejandro Osuna (L) 20.6% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 23.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jack Flaherty's full player page → 7
Yoshinobu Yamamoto⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 18.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 18.6%
vs RHB 18.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.7 BF Expected batters faced 24.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 24.6% 3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L) 19.6% 3.0
3. Manny Machado (R) 23.2% 3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L) 22.2% 3.0
5. Ty France (R) 22.7% 3.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L) 22.7% 3.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 23.0% 2.7
8. Freddy Fermin (R) 21.1% 2.0
9. Samad Taylor (R) 23.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page → 8
Hunter Brown⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 19.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 17.5%
vs RHB 22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 26.7% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 26.6% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 24.6% 3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L) 19.7% 2.9
5. Jonny DeLuca (R) 25.4% 2.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 18.4% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 21.9% 2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L) 19.3% 2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R) 23.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hunter Brown's full player page → 9
Sean Burke⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.2%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 25.4% 3.0
2. David Fry (R) 19.7% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 21.1% 3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R) 18.9% 3.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L) 21.4% 3.0
6. Brayan Rocchio (L) 22.4% 2.1
7. Gabriel Arias (R) 20.4% 2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R) 17.0% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 22.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Burke's full player page → 10
Brendan Beck⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.5 BF Expected batters faced 20.5
From recent starts 1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 24.3% 3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L) 22.4% 3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 20.7% 2.5
4. Josh Bell (L) 22.8% 2.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 20.6% 2.0
6. Victor Caratini (L) 23.3% 2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R) 23.7% 2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L) 20.0% 2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R) 25.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brendan Beck's full player page → 11
Robbie Ray⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 18.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.4%
vs RHB 18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 25.5% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 20.8% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 23.5% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 24.7% 3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R) 22.5% 3.0
6. Tyler Freeman (R) 23.5% 2.8
7. Edouard Julien (L) 20.1% 2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R) 22.9% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 21.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Robbie Ray's full player page → 12
Shane Bieber⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.4%
vs RHB 27.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 21.2% 3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R) 25.7% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 24.1% 3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R) 21.1% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 24.4% 2.4
6. Cal Raleigh (L) 18.9% 2.0
7. Luke Raley (L) 20.4% 2.0
8. Cole Young (L) 22.1% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 21.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Bieber's full player page → 13
Chris Sale⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.1%
vs RHB 21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 23.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.8 BF Expected batters faced 24.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 20.0% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 21.4% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 25.1% 3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (R) 20.6% 3.0
5. Carson Benge (L) 25.4% 3.0
6. Jared Young (L) 20.4% 3.0
7. Francisco Alvarez (R) 22.2% 2.8
8. Brett Baty (L) 20.5% 2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R) 21.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Chris Sale's full player page → 14
Griffin Canning⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.5%
vs RHB 22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.5 BF Expected batters faced 20.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 24.4% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 22.9% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 25.7% 2.5
4. Mookie Betts (R) 24.4% 2.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 21.7% 2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L) 22.2% 2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R) 23.8% 2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L) 21.9% 2.0
9. Tommy Edman (L) 21.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Canning's full player page → 15
Logan Gilbert⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 19.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.5%
vs RHB 20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 23.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Nathan Lukes (L) 25.5% 3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 25.7% 3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 21.4% 3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L) 21.1% 3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R) 24.4% 3.0
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L) 22.5% 2.7
7. Ernie Clement (R) 25.8% 2.0
8. Sean Keys (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Logan Gilbert's full player page → 16
Shota Imanaga⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 19.4%
vs RHB 21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 20.7% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 22.5% 3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R) 24.5% 3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R) 24.0% 3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L) 21.0% 3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 23.8% 2.1
7. José Fermín (R) 21.6% 2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Nathan Church (L) 25.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shota Imanaga's full player page → 17
Kyle Leahy⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.8%
vs RHB 21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 24.4% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 22.4% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 21.9% 3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R) 23.9% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (L) 21.3% 2.5
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 23.2% 2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L) 18.9% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 21.1% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 21.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Leahy's full player page → 18
Zack Littell⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.6%
vs RHB 22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.8 BF Expected batters faced 20.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Konnor Griffin (R) 24.2% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 23.7% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 22.8% 2.8
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 22.5% 2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 24.4% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 25.8% 2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L) 28.2% 2.0
8. Endy Rodríguez (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R) 19.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zack Littell's full player page → 19
Parker Messick⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.8%
vs RHB 21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Sam Antonacci (L) 18.5% 3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R) 21.1% 3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L) 19.9% 3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L) 24.1% 3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L) 22.2% 3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R) 22.5% 3.0
7. Chase Meidroth (R) 25.3% 2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L) 18.6% 2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Parker Messick's full player page → 20
Braxton Ashcraft⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.5%
vs RHB 21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 20.9% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 26.7% 3.0
3. José Tena (L) 22.7% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 22.2% 3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R) 18.9% 3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L) 25.1% 3.0
7. Keibert Ruiz (L) 23.7% 2.2
8. Jorbit Vivas (L) 20.3% 2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L) 19.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Braxton Ashcraft's full player page → 21
Kumar Rocker⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.7%
vs RHB 21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 24.5% 3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 24.3% 3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L) 23.5% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 25.4% 3.0
5. Colt Keith (L) 23.8% 2.5
6. Spencer Torkelson (R) 19.7% 2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 21.9% 2.0
8. James Outman (L) 14.7% 2.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R) 22.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kumar Rocker's full player page → 22
Brandon Young⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.4%
vs RHB 23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (L) 23.5% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 22.4% 3.0
3. Spencer Steer (R) 20.3% 3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R) 22.9% 3.0
5. Noelvi Marte (R) 22.7% 3.0
6. JJ Bleday (L) 19.3% 3.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R) 22.6% 2.1
8. Matt McLain (R) 18.7% 2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Young's full player page → 23
Jesús Luzardo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 22.5% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 22.5% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 22.5% 3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 22.5% 3.0
5. Starling Marte (R) 22.5% 3.0
6. Nick Loftin (R) 22.5% 3.0
7. Michael Massey (L) 22.5% 2.5
8. Isaac Collins (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jesús Luzardo's full player page → 24
Aaron Civale⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.1%
vs RHB 23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.1 BF Expected batters faced 22.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 23.6% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 26.3% 3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L) 22.9% 3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L) 27.5% 3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L) 23.0% 2.1
6. Owen Caissie (L) 21.7% 2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 19.6% 2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R) 24.4% 2.0
9. Joe Mack (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Aaron Civale's full player page → 25
Sonny Gray⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.0%
vs RHB 24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.3 BF Expected batters faced 24.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 21.7% 3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L) 23.2% 3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R) 24.2% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 19.7% 3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L) 26.5% 3.0
6. Jo Adell (R) 21.1% 3.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R) 19.7% 2.3
8. Josh Lowe (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 19.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sonny Gray's full player page → 26
Merrill Kelly⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.4%
vs RHB 23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.1 BF Expected batters faced 25.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 22.9% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 24.2% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 23.2% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 24.1% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 20.4% 3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L) 22.4% 3.0
7. Sal Frelick (L) 24.3% 3.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R) 22.5% 2.1
9. David Hamilton (L) 20.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Merrill Kelly's full player page → 27
Michael Wacha⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.7 BF Expected batters faced 25.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 22.5% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 22.5% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 22.5% 3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 22.5% 3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R) 22.5% 3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L) 22.5% 3.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 22.5% 3.0
8. Justin Crawford (L) 22.5% 2.7
9. Rafael Marchán (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Michael Wacha's full player page → 28
Sandy Alcantara⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.6%
vs RHB 24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 26.2 BF Expected batters faced 26.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shea Langeliers (R) 21.8% 3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L) 24.6% 3.0
3. Colby Thomas (R) 19.9% 3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L) 19.4% 3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 22.5% 3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L) 21.9% 3.0
7. Henry Bolte (R) 24.2% 3.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L) 22.8% 3.0
9. Alika Williams (R) 22.8% 2.2
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sandy Alcantara's full player page → 29
Zebby Matthews⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 25.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 25.9%
vs RHB 24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.8 BF Expected batters faced 24.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 6.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 20.6% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 22.0% 3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L) 22.4% 3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 21.5% 3.0
5. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 22.2% 3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 21.7% 3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L) 19.5% 2.8
8. José Caballero (R) 21.0% 2.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 19.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zebby Matthews's full player page → 30
Tomoyuki Sugano⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 25.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 25.0%
vs RHB 24.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 6.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Luis Arraez (L) 28.9% 3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R) 23.3% 3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R) 23.0% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 22.6% 3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 25.8% 3.0
6. Willy Adames (R) 22.5% 2.1
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 20.9% 2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page → Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026 Brandon Woodruff (MIL) is the top hits allowed spot on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.6 H, with Hunter Greene (CIN) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Brandon Woodruff Brandon Woodruff (MIL) tops the Saturday, July 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.6 H vs AZ. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Hunter Greene (CIN) (98) — about 3.7 H vs BAL. Sean Manaea (NYM) (75) — about 4.3 H vs ATL. Sam Aldegheri (LAA) (71) — about 4.3 H vs BOS. Drew Rasmussen (TB) (71) — about 4.3 H vs HOU. Jack Flaherty (DET) (67) — about 4.4 H vs TEX. How to read the hits allowed board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)? Brandon Woodruff (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 3.6 H against AZ.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today? The top projected starts on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Brandon Woodruff (~3.6 H), Hunter Greene (~3.7 H), Sean Manaea (~4.3 H), Sam Aldegheri (~4.3 H), Drew Rasmussen (~4.3 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated? Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the hits allowed board is The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His hit-suppression vs this lineup. The park. Projected batters faced. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.
How to use it Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
