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Hits Allowed Board · Archive

Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Our top 5 starts went 3/4 (75%) on the mark, against 48% on the season.

Top 5
3/475%
season 48%
Top 10
4/944%
season 48%
Full slate
15/2952%
season 49%

Top call Trey Yesavage came through. Mason Englert didn't.

Final · 10–9NYMNYMawayATLATLhomeTop matchup33Final · 11–5PITPITawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup29Final · 2–3BALBALawayCINCINhomeTop matchup27Final · 6–1MINMINawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup24Final · 7–6CWSCWSawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup100Final · 4–6STLSTLawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup61Final · 2–5PHIPHIawayKCKChomeTop matchup60Final · 0–2TBTBawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup100Final · 6–3DETDETawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup43Final · 3–2MILMILawayAZAZhomeTop matchup97Final · 6–7SFSFawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup65Final · 9–8MIAMIAawayATHATHhomeTop matchup99Final · 0–4TORTORawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup100Final · 5–2SDSDawayLADLADhomeTop matchup100Final · 7–5BOSBOSawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup78
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.0%
vs RHB18.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)21.4%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)21.1%3.0
3. Cal Raleigh (L)19.0%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)24.3%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)20.2%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)22.4%2.8
7. Mitch Garver (R)15.8%2.0
8. Colt Emerson (L)21.6%2.0
9. Victor Robles (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+107-142

We project 4.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)24.7%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)19.6%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)23.0%2.6
4. Gavin Sheets (L)22.2%2.0
5. Ty France (R)22.1%2.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)22.9%2.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)23.2%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)22.7%2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+103-136

We project 4.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.1% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.3 BF

Expected batters faced13.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)22.6%2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)24.5%2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)20.3%2.0
4. Christian Walker (R)21.1%2.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)17.7%1.3
6. Cam Smith (R)20.5%1.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)20.5%1.0
8. Nick Allen (R)20.4%1.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)21.8%1.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+104-139

We project 3.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Mason Englert's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB17.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload8.7 BF

Expected batters faced8.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection1.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)17.7%1.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L)22.2%1.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)28.9%1.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)19.7%1.0
5. Gabriel Arias (R)20.3%1.0
6. Cooper Ingle (L)22.5%1.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)19.7%1.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)17.3%1.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)20.0%0.7

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Murphy's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB18.4%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)24.9%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)24.7%3.0
3. Zack Gelof (R)22.7%3.0
4. Lawrence Butler (L)21.7%2.4
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)25.9%2.0
6. Carlos Cortes (L)24.9%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)21.3%2.0
8. Jonah Heim (L)18.7%2.0
9. Brian Serven (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-120-120
DKDraftKings-114-116

We project 4.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)23.5%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)21.0%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)21.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)24.8%2.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)22.1%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)22.6%2.0
7. Tim Tawa (R)17.1%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)21.0%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)18.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-138+104

We project 4.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate26.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB26.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.0 BF

Expected batters faced18.0
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)20.9%2.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)25.1%2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.5%2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)23.2%2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)22.5%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)22.4%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)22.4%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)19.9%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-145
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+117-156

We project 4.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB24.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)24.6%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)25.7%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)23.5%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)25.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)27.3%2.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)21.3%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)19.3%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)19.1%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+100-140
DKDraftKings+102-136
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 4.8 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)24.7%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.9%3.0
3. Liam Hicks (L)19.0%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)23.7%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)23.2%2.9
6. Esteury Ruiz (R)20.1%2.0
7. Leo Jiménez (R)19.3%2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L)20.7%2.0
9. Brian Navarreto (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOVBovada-110-130
DKDraftKings-108-123
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 4.8 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.0%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.5 BF

Expected batters faced17.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)23.5%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)23.3%2.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)26.1%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)22.0%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.9%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)22.5%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)20.7%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)23.2%2.0
9. Bryan Torres (L)23.4%1.4

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+113-150
FANFanatics+120-170

We project 4.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Javier Assad's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.3% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.7 BF

Expected batters faced18.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)26.1%2.7
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)20.6%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)23.3%2.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)26.2%2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)23.3%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)23.1%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.5%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)24.6%2.0
9. Garrett Stubbs (L)17.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+113-150

We project 4.1 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)23.1%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)18.1%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)20.9%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)21.3%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)22.5%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)23.8%2.7
7. Jose Siri (R)19.2%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)21.1%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)18.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-146+110
FANFanatics-170+120

We project 5.1 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)19.7%3.0
2. Jake Burger (R)23.1%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.9%2.7
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.3%2.0
5. Evan Carter (L)20.7%2.0
6. Elias Díaz (R)20.3%2.0
7. Josh Smith (L)21.9%2.0
8. Cam Cauley (R)22.5%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-130-110
DKDraftKings-124-107

We project 4.6 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)25.0%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)25.7%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.3%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)24.3%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.7%2.2
6. Ernie Clement (R)25.6%2.0
7. Sean Keys (L)22.4%2.0
8. Luis Urías (R)22.5%2.0
9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+115-153
FANFanatics+100-140

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.5%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Francisco Lindor (R)21.1%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)21.5%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)25.3%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)24.2%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)24.5%2.0
6. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.8%2.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)20.0%2.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)21.2%2.0
9. Brett Baty (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-110
BOVBovada-150+110
DKDraftKings-149+112
FANFanatics-155+110

We project 4.5 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB16.1%
vs RHB27.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)26.7%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)26.3%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)24.4%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)19.6%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)27.6%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)22.1%2.5
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)17.5%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)19.6%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada+110-150
DKDraftKings+113-151
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)22.5%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)20.8%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.7%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)25.1%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)23.4%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)25.6%2.9
7. Austin Riley (R)21.9%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.1%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
BOVBovada+105-145
DKDraftKings+121-161

We project 4.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.7% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB20.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)21.2%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)26.6%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)21.1%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)22.1%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)26.0%3.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)18.7%2.5
7. José Tena (L)22.8%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)21.5%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+115-155
DKDraftKings+110-146
FANFanatics+105-150

We project 4.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB26.0%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.0%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)21.2%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)23.3%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)20.1%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)22.6%3.0
6. Tyler O'Neill (R)18.4%2.4
7. Leody Taveras (R)20.3%2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.2%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
FANFanatics+110-155

We project 4.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Lodolo's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.0%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)21.0%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)21.7%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.8%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)21.4%3.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R)19.9%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)21.6%3.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)19.7%2.2
8. Austin Wells (L)18.9%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-127-104

We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)24.1%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)23.9%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)23.4%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)25.5%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.6%2.5
6. Colt Keith (L)23.9%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)22.0%2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R)17.9%2.0
9. James Outman (L)14.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-111-120
FANFanatics-105-135

We project 5.2 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.0% Hits / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)22.9%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)24.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)19.8%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)20.0%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)20.5%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (R)20.6%2.2
7. Brooks Lee (R)22.1%2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)16.4%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-133+100
FANFanatics-150+105

We project 4.8 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.9% Hits / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)23.7%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)22.3%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)19.6%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)22.9%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)20.5%3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.7%2.9
7. Noelvi Marte (R)23.1%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)21.1%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110

We project 4.9 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)26.6%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)18.9%3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)23.5%3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)21.7%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)19.7%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L)22.5%2.5
7. Chase Meidroth (R)21.9%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)26.1%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings+100-133
FANFanatics+115-165

We project 5.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB25.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)21.9%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)26.5%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)19.6%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)18.5%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)23.4%2.3
6. Salvador Perez (R)20.8%2.0
7. Josh Rojas (L)18.2%2.0
8. Kameron Misner (L)20.9%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOVBovada-110-130
DKDraftKings-105-126
FANFanatics-135-105

We project 5.3 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Turang (L)22.8%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)28.6%3.0
3. Christian Yelich (L)22.1%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)26.6%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)21.2%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)22.3%2.6
7. Gary Sánchez (R)20.3%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)20.6%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOVBovada-140+100
DKDraftKings-138+104
FANFanatics-140+100

We project 5.7 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.5% Hits / BF

vs LHB24.8%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.8%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)23.0%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.3%3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)25.6%2.2
5. Michael Busch (L)19.3%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)31.1%2.0
7. Ian Happ (R)19.8%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)25.6%2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-155+115
DKDraftKings-152+115

We project 5.4 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate29.4% Hits / BF

vs LHB27.4%
vs RHB30.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)29.1%3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R)23.7%2.5
3. Heliot Ramos (R)22.9%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)22.6%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)25.7%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)22.5%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)20.9%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)21.5%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOVBovada-105-135
DKDraftKings-102-130

We project 5.8 H vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Gordon's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.6% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)23.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.9%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.8%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.5%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)24.3%2.7
6. Nick Gonzales (R)25.8%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.3%2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L)19.5%2.0
9. Jake Mangum (L)28.0%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOVBovada-115-125
DKDraftKings-109-121

We project 5.6 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 H

Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.0%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)26.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)23.9%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)22.1%3.0
5. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.8%3.0
6. Alex Call (R)25.0%2.8
7. Miguel Rojas (R)26.6%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (R)17.3%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOVBovada-135-105
DKDraftKings-132+100
FANFanatics-115-125

We project 6.0 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

JP Sears's full player page →

What the hits allowed board is

The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
  • The park.
  • Projected batters faced.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.

How to use it

Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays