Best MLB outs recorded matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP). His recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. Results show how each call played out.
How the model did — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Our top 5 starts went 3/4 (75%) on the mark, against 52% on the season.
Top 5
3/475%
season 52%
Top 10
7/978%
season 51%
Full slate
16/2857%
season 50%
Top call Trey Yesavage came through. Joe Ryan didn't.
Share of our top-ranked starts that hit the mark, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
3/475%
season 52%+23 pts-6% ROI
Top 10
7/978%
season 51%+27 pts-7% ROI
Top 20
11/1958%
season building
Top 50
16/2857%
season building
Full slate
16/2857%
season 50%+7 pts-8% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — the mark. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Outs Recorded Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026
Trey Yesavage (TOR) is the top outs recorded spot on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 17.7 outs, with Ranger Suarez (BOS) right behind. Every starter is ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Trey Yesavage
Trey Yesavage (TOR) tops the Sunday, July 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 17.7 outs vs SEA. His recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching.
The rest of the top of the board
Ranger Suarez (BOS) (100) — about 16.4 outs vs LAA.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) (100) — about 18.4 outs vs CWS.
Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) (100) — about 17.9 outs vs MIL.
Joe Ryan (MIN) (91) — about 17.2 outs vs NYY.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) (90) — about 17.0 outs vs CIN.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 14.5 outs. Trey Yesavage finished with 18. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the outs recorded board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. We project a outs (IP) count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best outs recorded matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?
Trey Yesavage (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 17.7 outs against SEA.
What are the best pitcher outs (IP) props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Trey Yesavage (~17.7 outs), Ranger Suarez (~16.4 outs), Tanner Bibee (~18.4 outs), Eduardo Rodriguez (~17.9 outs), Joe Ryan (~17.2 outs). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the outs recorded score calculated?
Ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected outs (IP) count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best outs (IP) spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
What the outs recorded board is
The Outs Recorded board projects how deep a starter goes — his projected outs. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His workload and recent pitch counts.
The matchup difficulty.
The game script.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Transparency board, and a key input to the team run model (how many innings the starter covers vs the bullpen).
How to use it
Useful for DFS (a starter who goes deep banks more) and as context; not a standalone edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
