Best MLB outs recorded matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 slate — ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP). Results show how each call played out.
How the model did — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Our top 5 starts went 5/5 (100%) on our outs over/under, against 55% on the season.
Top 5
5/5100%
season 55%
Top 10
8/1080%
season 50%
Full slate
15/2463%
season 50%
Top call Yoshinobu Yamamoto came through. Drew Rasmussen didn't.
Each starting pitcher below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average starting pitcher in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →
Share of our top-ranked starts that hit our outs over/under, next to the season-to-date rate.
Top 5
5/5100%
season 55%+45 pts-1% ROI
Top 10
8/1080%
season 50%+30 pts-8% ROI
Top 20
12/1963%
season building
Top 50
15/2463%
season building
Full slate
15/2463%
season 50%+13 pts-7% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — our outs over/under. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Outs Recorded Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) leads the Saturday, July 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 19.7 outs is today's longest projected leash. Sandy Alcantara (MIA) is next at 95. Outs are the quiet stat — every DK point and every run total leans on how deep the starter goes, and this board ranks the whole slate by exactly that.
Top spot: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) projects for the deepest start on the slate — about 19.7 outs against SD. Depth is earned two ways: efficiency against this specific lineup, and a manager with reasons to let him keep the ball.
The rest of the top of the board
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) (95) — about 19.0 outs vs ATH.
Michael Wacha (KC) (94) — about 18.8 outs vs PHI.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (91) — about 18.3 outs vs TOR.
Sonny Gray (BOS) (90) — about 18.2 outs vs LAA.
Drew Rasmussen (TB) (89) — about 18.1 outs vs HOU.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 18.0 outs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto finished with 21. Every projection is graded against the box score.
Why outs are the quiet DFS stat
Three outs per inning, so 18 outs is six innings and 21 is seven — and the difference between those two numbers is bigger than it looks. On DraftKings, innings pay more than anything except strikeouts, and a start that ends in the fifth caps everything else the arm was building. Depth also decides who gets the win bonus and how much bullpen variance leaks into the run total. What shortens a leash rarely shows up in a season ERA: a lineup that grinds pitch counts, a thin bullpen the manager is protecting, a pitch-limited arm coming off a layoff. That's what this board is scoring.
How to read the outs recorded board
Every starter gets a 0–100 score for how deep tonight sets up — his pitch efficiency against this lineup's patience, blended with how long his club has actually let him work. The projected outs number beside it is the honest translation: 15 is five innings, 18 is six, 21 is seven. Where a book posts an outs line, we show it with our lean, and every projection grades against the box score.
The Outs Recorded board projects how deep a starter goes — his projected outs. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His workload and recent pitch counts.
The matchup difficulty.
The game script.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Transparency board, and a key input to the team run model (how many innings the starter covers vs the bullpen).
How to use it
Useful for DFS (a starter who goes deep banks more) and as context; not a standalone edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Which pitcher has the best outs recorded matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)?
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 19.7 outs against SD.
What are the best pitcher outs (IP) props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~19.7 outs), Sandy Alcantara (~19.0 outs), Michael Wacha (~18.8 outs), Logan Gilbert (~18.3 outs), Sonny Gray (~18.2 outs). The full board ranks every starter.
What does 18.5 outs mean on a pitching line?
Six-and-a-third innings — outs lines convert at three per inning, so over 18.5 needs the starter to record at least one out in the seventh. It's the cleanest way books price start length.
Why do projected outs matter for DFS?
DraftKings pays 2.25 points per inning, so two extra innings is worth more than a strikeout — and deep starts are where win bonuses live. A K-heavy arm with a short leash often scores less than a moderate arm who works seven.
How is the outs recorded score calculated?
Ranked by how deep they're projected to go (outs / IP) — his recent workload and how far into games he's been pitching. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected outs (IP) number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best outs (IP) spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
