Last scored matchup
Nick isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 10 days ago, away at Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, September 27, 2026. This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
21 starts, 3-6, 4.97 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 108.2 innings. He's struck out 83 over that span, against 46 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws left-handed
Nick is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.
His last 5 starts
Nick has 19 strikeouts in 29.7 innings across his last 5 starts, a 5.8 K/9, with a 4.25 ERA over that stretch and 13 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Strikeouts and control
Nick has 83 strikeouts and 46 walks in 108.7 innings this season — 6.9 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9, a 1.8-to-1 ratio. That's around league-typical control — enough to work deep when the lineup cooperates, not enough to bail him out of a bad matchup.
What his floor looks like
Nick has made 21 starts this season, averaging 5.2 innings with a 4.97 ERA across them. In the 12 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 8 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
How long he goes
Nick is averaging 5.3 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 7.0 and about 93 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
A long gap since his last start
Nick hasn't started in 12 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
His best start in the log
Nick's high-water mark was Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at LAD: 6 strikeouts over 4.7 innings, 3 earned runs. One start doesn't set a projection — the model works off the blend of his recent work against the specific lineup in front of him — but it does show the ceiling when the matchup lines up.
How the model reads him
The number on Nick is about tonight, not about him. Strip out the name and the model is asking one question: what does this specific lineup do to this kind of arm, in this park, for as many batters as he's likely to face? That gets scored against every other starter on the slate. The combination math is proprietary and re-tuned every week. The grading isn't — it's all public, including the misses.
What we'd flag
Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working. For Nick specifically, he's coming off a 12-day gap.