Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, March 31, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against CLE. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, March 31, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (~7.5 K), Brandon Woodruff (~6.7 K), Jacob deGrom (~6.6 K), Max Scherzer (~5.6 K), Hunter Brown (~6.3 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, March 31, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 8–5

TEXaway

BALhomeTop matchup79 Final · 8–3

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup53 Final · 2–3

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup31 Final · 2–9

CWSaway

MIAhomeTop matchup27 Final · 1–5

COLaway

TORhomeTop matchup62 Final · 5–2

ATHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup36 Final · 2–0

LAAaway

CHChomeTop matchup37 Final · 2–6

TBaway

MILhomeTop matchup93 Final · 0–3

NYMaway

STLhomeTop matchup42 Final · 2–9

BOSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup59 Final · 5–7

DETaway

AZhomeTop matchup52 Final · 9–3

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup48 Final · 5–0

NYYaway

SEAhomeTop matchup55 Final · 1–4

CLEaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate30.7% K/BF

vs LHB32.3%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)18.3%3.0

2. David Fry (R)24.9%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)21.4%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)30.3%3.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)23.9%3.0

6. Bo Naylor (L)25.4%2.0

7. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.3%2.0

8. Daniel Schneemann (L)23.8%2.0

9. Angel Martínez (L)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate30.6% K/BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB32.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.8%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.8%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)22.3%3.0

4. Jake Fraley (L)22.7%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)21.3%3.0

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.7%2.0

7. Nick Fortes (R)18.9%2.0

8. Ryan Vilade (R)23.5%2.0

9. Carson Williams (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.5% K/BF

vs LHB29.8%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.8%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.4%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.9%3.0

4. Adley Rutschman (L)21.1%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.1%3.0

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.7%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)24.1%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)25.0%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)21.8%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)23.5%3.0

3. Willi Castro (L)23.3%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.4%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)23.1%3.0

6. Jordan Beck (R)21.4%2.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)21.8%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.9%2.0

9. Edouard Julien (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.6% K/BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)25.3%3.0

2. Trevor Story (R)28.6%3.0

3. Masataka Yoshida (L)20.2%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.9%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.9%2.9

6. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.4%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)24.7%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)22.5%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.7%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)28.4%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)21.5%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)21.2%3.0

5. Giancarlo Stanton (R)23.3%2.8

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.0%2.0

7. J.C. Escarra (L)15.8%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)23.3%2.0

9. Ryan McMahon (L)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)24.6%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)20.1%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.5%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.4%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)25.5%3.0

6. Dane Myers (R)22.3%2.0

7. Noelvi Marte (R)24.6%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)23.7%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt Vierling (R)22.7%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.6%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)20.2%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)23.5%3.0

5. Kerry Carpenter (L)29.6%3.0

6. Spencer Torkelson (R)27.6%2.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)22.1%2.0

8. Parker Meadows (L)22.3%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.6%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.9%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)21.2%3.0

4. Jackson Merrill (L)19.5%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.0%3.0

6. Miguel Andujar (R)21.4%2.3

7. Gavin Sheets (L)25.2%2.0

8. Nick Castellanos (R)23.8%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Rob Refsnyder (R)22.6%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)25.8%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.9%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)22.4%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)22.6%3.0

6. Brendan Donovan (L)21.0%2.0

7. Victor Robles (R)22.6%2.0

8. Leo Rivas (R)21.8%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)22.3%3.0

2. Christian Vázquez (R)20.3%3.0

3. Brice Matthews (R)25.7%3.0

4. Nick Allen (R)23.8%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)20.4%3.0

6. Joey Loperfido (L)25.5%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)23.5%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)22.4%2.0

9. Jake Meyers (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.1%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.2%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.2%3.0

4. Masyn Winn (R)22.6%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)24.8%3.0

6. Jordan Walker (R)21.3%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)23.4%2.0

8. Ramón Urías (R)23.3%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)20.6%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)20.1%3.0

3. Mookie Betts (R)17.6%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)17.4%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)19.0%2.7

6. Max Muncy (L)22.2%2.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.8%2.0

8. Andy Pages (R)20.5%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Kelly (R)20.9%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)16.5%3.0

3. Ian Happ (L)24.9%3.0

4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.3%3.0

5. Nico Hoerner (R)17.0%3.0

6. Dansby Swanson (R)21.5%2.1

7. Michael Conforto (L)26.3%2.0

8. Matt Shaw (R)21.5%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)20.8%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)24.0%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)25.4%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)22.5%3.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.6%3.0

6. Max Muncy (R)21.4%2.0

7. Andy Ibáñez (R)23.8%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)25.3%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.4%3.0

2. Luis Rengifo (R)20.2%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)21.5%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)24.1%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)22.8%3.0

6. Jake Bauers (L)25.4%2.0

7. Brandon Lockridge (R)22.6%2.0

8. Sal Frelick (L)19.9%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake Mangum (R)21.2%3.0

2. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.5%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)24.0%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.4%3.0

5. Brandon Lowe (L)23.2%3.0

6. Nick Gonzales (R)24.0%2.0

7. Henry Davis (R)22.2%2.0

8. Oneil Cruz (L)23.4%2.0

9. Nick Yorke (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)25.8%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)17.4%3.0

3. CJ Abrams (L)19.0%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)19.6%3.0

5. Brady House (R)25.3%3.0

6. Keibert Ruiz (L)19.3%2.0

7. José Tena (L)21.8%2.0

8. Joey Wiemer (R)21.0%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)20.7%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)20.5%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.1%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)26.0%3.0

5. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.5%3.0

6. Ozzie Albies (L)18.4%2.0

7. Michael Harris II (L)20.1%2.0

8. Dominic Smith (L)21.5%2.0

9. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.6% K/BF

vs LHB15.7%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.2%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)21.2%3.0

3. Andrew Benintendi (L)24.1%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.5%3.0

5. Miguel Vargas (R)23.2%3.0

6. Austin Hays (R)27.3%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)24.5%2.0

8. Edgar Quero (L)22.5%2.0

9. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB17.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)21.6%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.2%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.4%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)27.7%3.0

5. Adam Frazier (L)21.7%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)22.0%2.0

7. Bryce Teodosio (R)23.1%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)26.4%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)19.6%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.3%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)20.1%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.9%3.0

5. Alek Thomas (L)22.3%3.0

6. Jose Fernandez (R)22.0%2.0

7. Carlos Santana (L)22.0%2.0

8. James McCann (R)25.2%2.0

9. Jordan Lawlar (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.8% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)23.7%3.0

2. Myles Straw (R)16.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)18.2%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)26.2%3.0

5. Nathan Lukes (L)18.8%3.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)17.1%2.0

7. Daulton Varsho (L)23.3%2.0

8. Tyler Heineman (L)20.9%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.0%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)19.3%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.8%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)25.4%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)21.4%3.0

6. Josh Smith (L)19.7%2.0

7. Danny Jansen (R)23.4%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)20.5%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.8%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.4%2.2

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.2%2.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.5%2.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.4%2.0

6. Adolis García (R)23.0%2.0

7. Brandon Marsh (L)27.1%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.7%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.7% K/BF

vs LHB16.5%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)25.3%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)18.5%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)20.8%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)19.6%3.0

5. Otto Lopez (R)20.6%3.0

6. Owen Caissie (L)21.6%2.0

7. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.2%2.0

8. Griffin Conine (L)23.3%2.0

9. Graham Pauley (L)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.9% K/BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB16.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)19.7%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)19.4%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)23.2%3.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

5. Jared Young (L)23.1%3.0

6. Brett Baty (L)24.0%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)22.9%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)22.2%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate14.7% K/BF

vs LHB15.5%

vs RHB14.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)24.7%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)24.0%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)25.4%3.0

4. Christian Koss (R)20.1%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)20.9%3.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)19.3%2.0

7. Harrison Bader (R)23.0%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)23.2%2.0

9. Casey Schmitt (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, March 31, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K, with Brandon Woodruff (MIL) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against CLE. He's missing bats at a 31% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CLE has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Brandon Woodruff (MIL) (93) — about 6.7 K vs TB: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Jacob deGrom (TEX) (79) — about 6.6 K vs BAL: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Max Scherzer (TOR) (62) — about 5.6 K vs COL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Hunter Brown (HOU) (59) — about 6.3 K vs BOS: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (55) — about 6.0 K vs NYY: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — José Suarez is the arm to exploit it (36).
DET is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Brandon Pfaadt is the arm to exploit it (52).
CLE is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Shohei Ohtani is the arm to exploit it (100).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jacob deGrom is the arm to exploit it (79).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.7 strikeouts. Top play Shohei Ohtani punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, March 31, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against CLE. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, March 31, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (~7.5 K), Brandon Woodruff (~6.7 K), Jacob deGrom (~6.6 K), Max Scherzer (~5.6 K), Hunter Brown (~6.3 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, March 31, 2026?: Shohei Ohtani punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.