Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, March 30, 2026)?

Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.7 K against PIT. A 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, March 30, 2026: Chase Burns (~7.7 K), Edward Cabrera (~6.3 K), Kris Bubic (~6.2 K), Jacob Lopez (~6.0 K), Michael Soroka (~5.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, March 30, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, March 30, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 1–3

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup54 Final · 5–2

TEXaway

BALhomeTop matchup39 Final · 0–2

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 13–2

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup27 Final · 9–4

CWSaway

MIAhomeTop matchup23 Final · 14–5

COLaway

TORhomeTop matchup32 Final · 0–4

ATHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup46 Final · 2–7

LAAaway

CHChomeTop matchup63 Final · 3–2

TBaway

MILhomeTop matchup23 Final · 4–2

NYMaway

STLhomeTop matchup25 Final · 1–8

BOSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup30 Final · 3–2

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup37 Final · 1–2

NYYaway

SEAhomeTop matchup45 Final · 6–9

DETaway

AZhomeTop matchup45 Final · 4–2

CLEaway

LADhomeTop matchup34

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate32.8% K/BF

vs LHB30.4%

vs RHB31.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.7%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.0%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)26.2%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.9%3.0

5. Billy Cook (R)31.9%3.0

6. Jared Triolo (R)21.1%2.0

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)21.8%2.0

8. Nick Gonzales (R)21.6%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)21.4%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)21.9%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)20.4%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)26.6%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)20.9%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)20.3%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)27.0%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)27.4%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Outman (L)34.3%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)22.5%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)21.0%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.3%3.0

5. Matt Wallner (L)22.9%3.0

6. Josh Bell (R)22.8%2.0

7. Victor Caratini (R)21.0%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)20.3%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.7% K/BF

vs LHB26.3%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)24.4%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)19.8%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)18.4%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)25.6%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)20.3%3.0

6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.2%2.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.3%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (R)20.4%2.0

9. Michael Harris II (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.4%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)20.3%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)21.0%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)23.7%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.7%3.0

6. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.0%2.0

7. Dillon Dingler (R)22.2%2.0

8. Parker Meadows (L)23.5%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB26.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)21.6%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)28.3%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)21.1%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)22.1%3.0

5. Randal Grichuk (R)18.0%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.6%2.0

7. Amed Rosario (R)22.4%2.0

8. Austin Wells (L)21.7%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)24.7%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)21.2%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.5%3.0

4. Dane Myers (R)22.3%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)24.0%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.3%2.0

7. Will Benson (L)25.8%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)23.2%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.9%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.3%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.1%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)26.8%3.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)21.4%3.0

6. Josh Smith (L)19.7%2.0

7. Josh Jung (R)24.5%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)20.2%2.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.2%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.9%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)21.0%3.0

4. Jackson Merrill (L)20.3%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.9%3.0

6. Miguel Andujar (R)21.4%2.0

7. Ramón Laureano (R)22.6%2.0

8. Nick Castellanos (R)21.9%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.6%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)23.0%3.0

3. Mookie Betts (R)19.1%3.0

4. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.1%3.0

5. Freddie Freeman (L)20.8%3.0

6. Andy Pages (R)21.4%2.0

7. Max Muncy (L)27.0%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)19.5%2.0

9. Will Smith (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brenton Doyle (R)22.4%3.0

2. Brett Sullivan (L)21.4%3.0

3. Ryan Ritter (R)24.8%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.7%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)22.9%3.0

6. Troy Johnston (L)23.6%2.0

7. Jordan Beck (R)22.8%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.7%2.0

9. Braxton Fulford (R)29.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)20.8%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)24.6%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.2%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)21.6%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.7%3.0

6. Mitch Garver (R)22.4%2.0

7. Victor Robles (R)20.1%2.0

8. Leo Rivas (R)21.2%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)20.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)20.2%3.0

3. Nick Allen (R)18.8%3.0

4. Carlos Correa (R)20.5%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)22.4%3.0

6. Cam Smith (R)23.5%2.0

7. Jake Meyers (R)21.8%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)22.4%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Michael Busch (L)22.2%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)17.7%3.0

3. Ian Happ (L)26.6%3.0

4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.1%3.0

5. Nico Hoerner (R)17.7%3.0

6. Carson Kelly (R)20.4%2.0

7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)23.7%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)22.4%2.0

9. Matt Shaw (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)27.8%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.3%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.6%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)29.0%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)21.6%3.0

6. Lawrence Butler (L)22.7%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)29.1%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)22.0%2.0

9. Andy Ibáñez (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)21.4%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.2%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.8%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)17.6%3.0

5. Adolis García (R)23.7%3.0

6. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.6%2.0

7. Otto Kemp (R)24.1%2.0

8. Brandon Marsh (L)28.0%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (R)16.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.6%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.5%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)23.2%3.0

4. Adley Rutschman (L)20.6%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.1%3.0

6. Jeremiah Jackson (R)25.0%2.0

7. Coby Mayo (R)21.9%2.0

8. Ryan Mountcastle (R)21.7%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)21.0%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)20.7%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)24.9%3.0

4. Jorge Polanco (L)20.0%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)24.3%3.0

6. Luis Robert Jr. (R)21.7%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)21.6%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)23.7%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)19.3%3.0

2. Cedric Mullins (L)21.9%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.1%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)19.6%3.0

5. Ben Williamson (R)20.0%3.0

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.9%2.0

7. Nick Fortes (R)19.6%2.0

8. Chandler Simpson (L)19.0%2.0

9. Carson Williams (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB16.5%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Miguel Vargas (R)24.9%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)21.3%3.0

3. Austin Hays (R)23.5%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.1%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)22.7%3.0

6. Derek Hill (R)25.0%2.0

7. Everson Pereira (R)25.8%2.0

8. Edgar Quero (L)23.5%2.0

9. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.0%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.6%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)19.1%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)20.5%3.0

5. Lane Thomas (R)24.7%3.0

6. Jonathan India (R)21.6%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)22.8%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)22.6%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)23.9%3.0

2. Trevor Story (R)27.5%3.0

3. Jarren Duran (L)21.2%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)24.5%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.4%3.0

6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)16.7%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)25.8%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)22.6%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.0%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.0%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.7%3.0

4. Masyn Winn (R)22.2%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)24.7%3.0

6. Jordan Walker (R)22.5%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)21.7%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)21.4%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)20.7%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.8%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)20.6%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.4%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)24.1%3.0

6. Alek Thomas (L)21.4%2.0

7. Carlos Santana (L)22.6%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.1%2.0

9. Jordan Lawlar (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)17.6%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)26.2%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)20.8%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)24.0%3.0

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)23.1%3.0

6. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.8%2.0

7. Gabriel Arias (R)26.7%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)26.3%2.0

9. Angel Martínez (L)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.3%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)19.5%3.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)21.1%3.0

4. Luis Rengifo (L)19.8%3.0

5. Gary Sánchez (R)23.9%3.0

6. Sal Frelick (L)20.9%2.0

7. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.5%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)20.3%2.0

9. Blake Perkins (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.6% K/BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)25.3%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)19.6%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)20.3%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)18.7%3.0

5. Otto Lopez (R)19.8%3.0

6. Owen Caissie (L)22.3%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)23.3%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)20.8%2.0

9. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.4% K/BF

vs LHB17.9%

vs RHB17.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)24.7%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)25.1%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)25.1%3.0

4. Luis Arraez (L)17.8%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)22.1%3.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)19.1%2.0

7. Harrison Bader (R)22.9%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)21.6%2.0

9. Casey Schmitt (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.1% K/BF

vs LHB16.1%

vs RHB16.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)22.7%3.0

2. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.3%3.0

3. Davis Schneider (R)27.7%3.0

4. Addison Barger (L)23.6%3.0

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)18.9%3.0

6. Nathan Lukes (L)19.1%2.0

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)24.6%2.0

8. Ernie Clement (R)18.1%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.0% K/BF

vs LHB16.4%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)25.7%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.4%3.0

3. Brady House (R)25.7%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)21.1%3.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)20.5%3.0

6. Drew Millas (L)21.0%2.0

7. José Tena (L)21.5%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.8%2.0

9. Joey Wiemer (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, March 30, 2026

Chase Burns (CIN) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, March 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.7 K, with Edward Cabrera (CHC) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chase Burns

Chase Burns (CIN) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.7 K against PIT. He's missing bats at a 33% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and PIT has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Edward Cabrera (CHC) (63) — about 6.3 K vs LAA: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Kris Bubic (KC) (54) — about 6.2 K vs MIN: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Jacob Lopez (ATH) (46) — about 6.0 K vs ATL: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Michael Soroka (AZ) (45) — about 5.9 K vs DET: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Luis Castillo (SEA) (45) — about 5.3 K vs NYY: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Bryce Elder is the arm to exploit it (29).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Cody Ponce is the arm to exploit it (32).
PIT is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Chase Burns is the arm to exploit it (100).
CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Chris Paddack is the arm to exploit it (23).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.1 strikeouts. Top play Chase Burns punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, March 30, 2026)?: Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.7 K against PIT. A 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, March 30, 2026: Chase Burns (~7.7 K), Edward Cabrera (~6.3 K), Kris Bubic (~6.2 K), Jacob Lopez (~6.0 K), Michael Soroka (~5.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Monday, March 30, 2026?: Chase Burns punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.