Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, April 8, 2026)?

Aaron Nola (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, April 8, 2026: Aaron Nola (~5.8 K), Dylan Cease (~6.1 K), MacKenzie Gore (~6.1 K), Will Warren (~5.8 K), Bryan Woo (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, April 8, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 8–2

SDaway

PIThomeTop matchup58 Final · 2–10

KCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup68 Final · 0–5

MILaway

BOShomeTop matchup50 Final · 5–3

BALaway

CWShomeTop matchup70 Final · 0–3

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup89 Final · 3–4

LADaway

TORhomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–9

HOUaway

COLhomeTop matchup18 Final · 0–5

PHIaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–1

STLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup30 Final · 8–2

ATLaway

LAAhomeTop matchup59 Final · 7–2

AZaway

NYMhomeTop matchup31 Final · 6–2

CHCaway

TBhomeTop matchup52 Final · 4–7

CINaway

MIAhomeTop matchup63 Final · 3–2

ATHaway

NYYhomeTop matchup79 Final · 6–8

DETaway

MINhomeTop matchup61

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB31.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)23.6%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)13.7%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)20.7%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.3%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)19.4%3.0

6. Jared Oliva (R)22.0%2.1

7. Harrison Bader (R)24.6%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)21.0%2.0

9. Christian Koss (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate30.6% K/BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB29.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.5%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)19.1%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.0%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)16.5%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)26.6%2.8

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)25.3%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)20.1%2.0

8. Alex Freeland (L)24.1%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB27.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Luke Raley (L)24.5%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)27.0%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.4%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)20.5%3.0

5. Brendan Donovan (L)19.8%3.0

6. Mitch Garver (R)22.6%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)21.1%2.0

8. Connor Joe (R)21.5%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness25.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.7%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)25.9%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.3%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.9%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)17.5%2.4

6. Lawrence Butler (L)24.6%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)26.9%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)23.9%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)30.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.7% K/BF

vs LHB27.2%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.6%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.8%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)23.6%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)25.4%3.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)23.0%3.0

6. Evan Carter (L)21.2%2.0

7. Danny Jansen (R)23.9%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)18.4%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.2%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)22.4%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.2%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.7%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)23.4%2.6

6. Ryan Mountcastle (R)22.3%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)24.3%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.4%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB27.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)17.0%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)18.5%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)15.9%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.8%3.0

5. Chase DeLauter (L)23.3%2.5

6. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.5%2.0

7. Juan Brito (R)20.8%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)22.3%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)24.2%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)23.2%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.9%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)23.0%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)32.9%3.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)14.9%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)24.5%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)17.6%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB26.3%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)19.5%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)24.7%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)21.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)28.0%3.0

5. Derek Hill (R)26.6%2.2

6. Dustin Harris (L)22.3%2.0

7. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.1%2.0

8. Reese McGuire (L)21.7%2.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)22.3%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)25.3%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)23.4%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.5%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.1%3.0

6. Will Benson (L)25.7%2.1

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.4%2.0

8. Noelvi Marte (R)21.1%2.0

9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.9%3.0

2. James Outman (L)25.1%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)23.1%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.0%3.0

5. Victor Caratini (R)21.8%3.0

6. Josh Bell (R)25.8%2.3

7. Matt Wallner (L)25.5%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)23.5%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.3%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.4%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)18.0%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.6%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)19.0%3.0

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.5%2.1

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.6%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (R)18.6%2.0

9. Michael Harris II (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.7%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.2%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.3%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.4%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)20.9%2.8

6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.4%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)20.0%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)24.4%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.8%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.9%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.8%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.3%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)26.1%2.7

6. Jo Adell (R)22.8%2.0

7. Jeimer Candelario (L)25.8%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.1%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)15.8%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.7%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)14.5%3.0

4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.3%3.0

5. Carson Kelly (R)20.3%3.0

6. Moisés Ballesteros (L)23.3%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)24.0%2.0

8. Michael Conforto (L)24.3%2.0

9. Matt Shaw (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.8%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.4%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)22.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.4%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)21.5%2.3

6. Lane Thomas (R)21.6%2.0

7. Jonathan India (R)22.2%2.0

8. Starling Marte (R)25.5%2.0

9. Isaac Collins (R)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sal Frelick (L)20.2%3.0

2. Garrett Mitchell (L)28.1%3.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)22.0%3.0

4. Luis Matos (R)20.0%3.0

5. Gary Sánchez (R)26.0%2.6

6. Luis Rengifo (L)20.0%2.0

7. Brandon Lockridge (R)19.5%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)19.9%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)23.1%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)16.7%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)23.6%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)18.6%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)23.4%2.6

6. Owen Caissie (L)24.2%2.0

7. Griffin Conine (L)25.9%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)17.8%2.0

9. Graham Pauley (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)25.3%3.0

2. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.2%3.0

3. Willson Contreras (R)20.5%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.5%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)23.4%3.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)17.1%2.0

7. Carlos Narváez (R)20.8%2.0

8. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)22.7%2.0

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB17.7%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)23.7%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.1%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)19.2%3.0

4. Ty France (R)20.4%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)18.5%3.0

6. Miguel Andujar (R)22.4%2.1

7. Bryce Johnson (L)26.1%2.0

8. Luis Campusano (R)21.3%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.3%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)25.7%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.8%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)20.8%3.0

5. Giancarlo Stanton (R)24.5%2.2

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.0%2.0

7. J.C. Escarra (L)21.9%2.0

8. Amed Rosario (R)22.6%2.0

9. Ryan McMahon (L)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)20.3%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)20.8%3.0

3. Jorge Polanco (L)19.2%3.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.1%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)24.0%2.4

6. Mark Vientos (R)20.6%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)24.1%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)21.5%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Spencer Torkelson (R)27.6%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.5%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)18.6%3.0

4. Jahmai Jones (R)24.1%2.9

5. Riley Greene (L)22.3%2.0

6. Dillon Dingler (R)24.3%2.0

7. Parker Meadows (L)23.3%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.5%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.5%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.3%3.0

3. Jake Fraley (L)18.8%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)22.6%2.1

5. Chandler Simpson (L)14.0%2.0

6. Ben Williamson (R)22.9%2.0

7. Hunter Feduccia (L)24.4%2.0

8. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.3%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.8%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)17.7%3.0

3. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.2%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)19.1%3.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)18.8%2.5

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.9%2.0

7. José Tena (L)22.8%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)18.9%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.4%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.3%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.2%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.6%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.7%2.4

6. Adolis García (R)23.7%2.0

7. Dylan Moore (R)24.0%2.0

8. Rafael Marchán (L)20.3%2.0

9. Otto Kemp (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)19.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.3%3.0

3. Jose Altuve (R)18.8%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)22.8%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)18.7%2.9

6. Cam Smith (R)22.6%2.0

7. Joey Loperfido (L)24.9%2.0

8. Brice Matthews (R)25.7%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)19.1%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)19.8%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.2%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)18.0%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)18.2%3.0

6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)18.0%2.3

7. Jose Fernandez (R)20.0%2.0

8. Tim Tawa (R)21.4%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)15.8%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.8%3.0

5. Yohel Pozo (R)19.6%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.8%2.4

7. Ramón Urías (R)23.0%2.0

8. Victor Scott II (L)25.4%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB16.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)2.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)26.7%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)19.9%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)20.6%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)26.5%3.0

5. Jake McCarthy (L)19.9%2.6

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.2%2.0

7. Troy Johnston (L)22.3%2.0

8. Brenton Doyle (R)26.2%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Aaron Nola (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, April 8, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K, with Dylan Cease (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. He's missing bats at a 27% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and SF has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Dylan Cease (TOR) (96) — about 6.1 K vs LAD: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (89) — about 6.1 K vs SEA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Will Warren (NYY) (79) — about 5.8 K vs ATH: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Bryan Woo (SEA) (71) — about 5.8 K vs TEX: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Sean Burke (CWS) (70) — about 5.7 K vs BAL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Will Warren is the arm to exploit it (79).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Grant Holmes is the arm to exploit it (57).
MIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Framber Valdez is the arm to exploit it (61).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Cristian Javier is the arm to exploit it (0).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.7 strikeouts. Top play Aaron Nola punched out 3. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, April 8, 2026)?: Aaron Nola (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, April 8, 2026: Aaron Nola (~5.8 K), Dylan Cease (~6.1 K), MacKenzie Gore (~6.1 K), Will Warren (~5.8 K), Bryan Woo (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Wednesday, April 8, 2026?: Aaron Nola punched out 3.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.