Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, May 19, 2026)?

Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.4 K against NYY. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, May 19, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.4 K), Jacob Misiorowski (~6.9 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.3 K), Emmet Sheehan (~6.1 K), Will Warren (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, May 19, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 8–4

ATLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup26 Final · 4–3

CLEaway

DEThomeTop matchup63 Final · 1–4

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup60 Final · 4–1

CINaway

PHIhomeTop matchup75 Final · 6–9

NYMaway

WSHhomeTop matchup62 Final · 4–5

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–1

BOSaway

KChomeTop matchup41 Final · 2–1

HOUaway

MINhomeTop matchup38 Final · 5–2

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup94 Final · 6–9

PITaway

STLhomeTop matchup32 Final · 10–0

TEXaway

COLhomeTop matchup12 Final · 14–6

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup60 Final · 5–4

LADaway

SDhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–5

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup53 Final · 2–1

CWSaway

SEAhomeTop matchup34

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate30.8% K/BF

vs LHB31.3%

vs RHB26.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.4%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)26.4%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.5%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.9%3.0

6. Ryan McMahon (L)28.1%2.7

7. Anthony Volpe (R)24.3%2.0

8. Paul Goldschmidt (R)23.1%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate34.6% K/BF

vs LHB35.7%

vs RHB27.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)10.8%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)20.7%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)18.4%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)29.2%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.9%2.9

6. Michael Conforto (L)23.7%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)19.7%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.2%2.0

9. Carson Kelly (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt McLain (R)21.9%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (R)24.7%3.0

3. Spencer Steer (R)18.6%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.9%3.0

5. Dane Myers (R)27.1%3.0

6. JJ Bleday (L)22.5%2.3

7. Blake Dunn (R)26.2%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.8%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB27.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.6%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)18.7%3.0

3. Ramón Laureano (R)28.3%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)23.4%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.1%2.4

6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.0%2.0

7. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.7%2.0

8. Ty France (R)18.3%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB29.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)19.9%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.6%3.0

3. Daulton Varsho (L)22.4%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.0%3.0

5. Myles Straw (R)16.4%2.7

6. Lenyn Sosa (R)19.4%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)25.9%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)20.6%2.0

9. Ernie Clement (R)13.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt Vierling (R)17.9%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)19.6%3.0

3. Jahmai Jones (R)26.0%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)22.9%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0

6. Colt Keith (L)21.1%2.1

7. Wenceel Pérez (R)19.6%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.4%2.0

9. Gage Workman (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jacob Young (R)17.3%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.0%3.0

3. José Tena (L)25.2%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)21.1%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)19.7%2.8

6. Dylan Crews (R)22.4%2.0

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.1%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)20.9%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.