Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, May 20, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against SD. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, May 20, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (~6.5 K), Chris Sale (~6.4 K), Emerson Hancock (~6.0 K), Joe Ryan (~5.6 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, May 20, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

★ Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.5Zach ThorntonNYM vs WSHwe project 5.0 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.5-115

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

Final · 9–4

CINaway

PHIhomeTop matchup54 Final · 3–5

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup39 Final · 1–4

HOUaway

MINhomeTop matchup71 Final · 5–4

TEXaway

COLhomeTop matchup61 Final · 3–6

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup40 Final · 4–5

CWSaway

SEAhomeTop matchup71 Final · 3–2

CLEaway

DEThomeTop matchup33 Final · 9–1

ATLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup94 Final · 4–8

NYMaway

WSHhomeTop matchup42 Final · 2–1

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup65 Final · 4–3

BOSaway

KChomeTop matchup46 Final · 5–0

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup69 Final · 7–0

PITaway

STLhomeTop matchup39 Final · 4–0

LADaway

SDhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–5

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup48

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB28.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.8%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)18.0%3.0

3. Gavin Sheets (L)20.6%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)23.0%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.5%3.0

6. Bryce Johnson (L)23.6%2.7

7. Nick Castellanos (R)24.2%2.0

8. Ramón Laureano (R)28.3%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+114-152

FANFanatics+110-145

DKDraftKings+113-144

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+115-150

BOLBetOnline+109-141

We project 6.5 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.9% K/BF

vs LHB27.3%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (R)19.6%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)15.8%3.0

3. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.0%3.0

4. Connor Norby (R)23.4%3.0

5. Esteury Ruiz (R)23.6%3.0

6. Owen Caissie (L)31.8%2.6

7. Christopher Morel (R)29.7%2.0

8. Liam Hicks (L)19.6%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+102-136

BOLBetOnline+100-130

DKDraftKings+121-154

BRBetRivers+105-139

BOVBovada-105-125

We project 6.4 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Randal Grichuk (R)20.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.8%3.0

3. Derek Hill (R)25.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)28.8%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)23.3%3.0

6. Jarred Kelenic (L)30.0%2.3

7. Tristan Peters (L)21.2%2.0

8. Miguel Vargas (R)18.7%2.0

9. Edgar Quero (L)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-122+100

BOLBetOnline-125-103

DKDraftKings-126-101

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BRBetRivers-139+105

BOVBovada-125-105

We project 6.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.4%3.0

2. Isaac Paredes (R)20.4%3.0

3. Yordan Alvarez (L)20.3%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)21.8%2.8

5. Jake Meyers (R)20.2%2.0

6. Zach Dezenzo (R)26.6%2.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)25.7%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)27.3%2.0

9. César Salazar (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+112-138

FANFanatics+100-130

BOLBetOnline+103-133

DKDraftKings+103-131

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+110-145

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB27.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)15.8%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)20.3%3.0

3. Ian Happ (R)25.8%3.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)20.8%2.5

5. Carson Kelly (R)18.5%2.0

6. Michael Busch (L)24.7%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)24.3%2.0

8. Miguel Amaya (R)19.5%2.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+112-148

BOLBetOnline+104-135

DKDraftKings+118-151

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers+105-139

BOVBovada+100-130

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.1% K/BF

vs LHB29.7%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)19.9%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.6%3.0

3. Daulton Varsho (L)21.4%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.6%3.0

5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)13.5%2.3

7. Myles Straw (R)16.7%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)22.8%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-140+114

BOLBetOnline-149+115

FANFanatics-160+120

DKDraftKings-158+124

BRBetRivers-150+112

BOVBovada-150+115

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.8%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)26.0%3.0

3. Tyler Freeman (R)15.4%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.9%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)23.3%3.0

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.0%2.4

7. Willi Castro (L)26.5%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)20.8%2.0

9. Braxton Fulford (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

DKDraftKings+110-140

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+110-146

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+120-160

BOLBetOnline+124-161

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)22.6%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)27.6%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)16.5%3.0

4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.4%3.0

5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)23.7%2.1

6. Amed Rosario (R)24.2%2.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)27.6%2.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.4%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)26.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-158+118

BOLBetOnline-156+120

DKDraftKings-158+123

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-139+105

BOVBovada-170+130

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt McLain (R)22.4%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.3%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)18.3%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)19.6%3.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)20.7%2.7

6. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.1%2.0

7. Blake Dunn (R)20.2%2.0

8. Dane Myers (R)22.3%2.0

9. P.J. Higgins (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-115-105

BOLBetOnline-132+102

DKDraftKings-134+105

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-127-105

BOVBovada-120-110

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.7%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)18.9%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)19.3%3.0

4. Kody Clemens (L)23.9%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)18.3%3.0

6. Victor Caratini (L)18.5%2.7

7. Tristan Gray (L)25.0%2.0

8. Ryan Kreidler (R)28.0%2.0

9. James Outman (L)28.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-166+126

BOLBetOnline-164+125

DKDraftKings-159+125

BOVBovada-165+125

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.6%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)20.2%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)14.4%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)25.8%3.0

5. Blake Perkins (L)24.7%3.0

6. Jake Bauers (L)24.5%2.5

7. Sal Frelick (L)15.2%2.0

8. Joey Ortiz (R)20.8%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+134-164

BOLBetOnline+136-179

DKDraftKings+129-165

MGMBetMGM+130-175

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+130-170

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)27.7%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)25.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.1%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.7%3.0

5. Adam Frazier (L)24.3%2.9

6. Jo Adell (R)24.0%2.0

7. Oswald Peraza (R)23.1%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)26.5%2.0

9. Josh Lowe (L)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-118-112

BOLBetOnline-114-114

DKDraftKings-122-104

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BRBetRivers-127-105

BOVBovada-120-110

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)21.2%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.7%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)15.9%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.8%3.0

5. Connor Joe (R)22.6%2.9

6. Dominic Canzone (L)21.9%2.0

7. Patrick Wisdom (R)22.7%2.0

8. Colt Emerson (L)22.2%2.0

9. Jhonny Pereda (R)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+118-158

BOLBetOnline+110-143

FANFanatics+115-150

DKDraftKings+105-134

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+114-152

BOVBovada+115-150

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)17.5%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)16.8%3.0

3. Michael Massey (L)23.6%3.0

4. Isaac Collins (R)23.4%3.0

5. Nick Loftin (R)17.9%2.6

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.6%2.0

7. Starling Marte (R)23.4%2.0

8. Carter Jensen (L)19.9%2.0

9. Lane Thomas (R)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-132+100

BOLBetOnline-132+102

FANFanatics-130+100

DKDraftKings-140+110

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-139+105

BOVBovada-130+100

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)25.3%3.0

2. Masataka Yoshida (L)14.0%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.3%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)26.1%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.6%3.0

6. Nick Sogard (L)21.9%3.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)21.9%2.3

8. Carlos Narváez (R)26.3%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-106-114

BOLBetOnline-110-118

DKDraftKings-111-115

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers+102-134

BOVBovada-110-120

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.4%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)19.7%3.0

3. Luis García Jr. (L)21.0%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)23.5%3.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)22.2%3.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)19.9%2.0

7. Jacob Young (R)19.8%2.0

8. Nasim Nuñez (R)21.4%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (R)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-125-106

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-129+101

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BRBetRivers-117-114

BOLBetOnline-123-104

We project 5.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.2% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.3%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.5%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.4%3.0

5. Willy Adames (R)24.4%3.0

6. Matt Chapman (R)25.0%3.0

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)25.1%2.2

8. Daniel Susac (R)21.8%2.0

9. Harrison Bader (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+120-148

BOLBetOnline+113-147

DKDraftKings+121-154

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+115-150

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)16.6%3.0

2. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.0%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)16.5%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)27.8%3.0

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.4%3.0

6. Jose Fernandez (R)24.9%2.3

7. Jorge Barrosa (L)27.6%2.0

8. Tim Tawa (R)22.2%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-152

FANFanatics+115-150

BOLBetOnline+109-141

DKDraftKings+104-132

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+115-150

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Gonzales (R)16.7%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)22.1%3.0

3. Billy Cook (R)24.0%3.0

4. Oneil Cruz (L)27.5%3.0

5. Spencer Horwitz (L)18.2%2.1

6. Konnor Griffin (R)24.6%2.0

7. Endy Rodríguez (L)21.7%2.0

8. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)21.8%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-158+128

BOLBetOnline-161+124

DKDraftKings-165+129

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-159+118

BOVBovada-165+125

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.9%3.0

2. Oliver Dunn (L)26.0%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)21.7%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)21.7%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)22.0%3.0

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)21.8%3.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.9%2.4

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)25.2%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-114-114

FANFanatics-115-115

DKDraftKings-117-109

BRBetRivers-122-109

BOVBovada-115-115

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-118-110

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Colt Keith (L)23.8%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.8%3.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)21.3%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)24.8%3.0

5. Matt Vierling (R)18.9%3.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (L)19.1%2.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)18.3%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)22.1%2.0

9. Spencer Torkelson (R)30.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-158+118

BRBetRivers-167+125

FANFanatics-150+115

DKDraftKings-156+122

BOVBovada-160+120

BOLBetOnline-154+118

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.2%3.0

2. Mookie Betts (R)16.7%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.2%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.6%3.0

5. Andy Pages (R)20.0%2.8

6. Max Muncy (L)24.4%2.0

7. Will Smith (R)18.8%2.0

8. Teoscar Hernández (R)28.0%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-150+122

DKDraftKings-152+119

BRBetRivers-137+102

BOVBovada-160+120

MGMBetMGM-165+125

BOLBetOnline-143+110

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Eli White (R)21.2%3.0

2. Michael Harris II (L)20.6%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)23.7%3.0

4. Jorge Mateo (R)22.7%3.0

5. Dominic Smith (L)20.2%3.0

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.8%2.4

7. Austin Riley (R)25.9%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.9%2.0

9. Sandy León (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-134+110

FANFanatics-145+110

BOLBetOnline-147+114

DKDraftKings-150+117

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BRBetRivers-159+118

BOVBovada-135+105

We project 4.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.8%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.7%3.0

3. Yohel Pozo (R)21.0%3.0

4. Thomas Saggese (R)24.6%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.0%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.4%2.0

7. César Prieto (L)22.6%2.0

8. Nathan Church (L)21.4%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+122-162

BOLBetOnline+110-143

FANFanatics+115-150

DKDraftKings+132-169

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+123-165

BOVBovada+120-160

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)20.3%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.4%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)19.2%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.2%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)28.4%2.2

6. Samuel Basallo (L)21.9%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)25.9%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)25.6%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-142

DKDraftKings+121-155

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+110-145

BOLBetOnline+118-154

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)23.1%3.0

2. Justin Foscue (R)21.9%3.0

3. Alejandro Osuna (L)25.1%3.0

4. Josh Jung (R)18.1%2.4

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.7%2.0

6. Jake Burger (R)24.6%2.0

7. Michael Helman (R)23.1%2.0

8. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.4%2.0

9. Jacob Latz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

DKDraftKings+112-144

FDFanDuel+116-142

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+110-145

BOLBetOnline+115-149

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.2% K/BF

vs LHB15.7%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Alika Williams (R)21.9%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)20.8%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)23.9%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.2%3.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.7%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.2%3.0

7. Jeff McNeil (L)17.0%2.3

8. Henry Bolte (R)22.1%2.0

9. Lawrence Butler (L)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-140+114

BOLBetOnline-130+100

DKDraftKings-135+106

FANFanatics-130+100

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-145+110

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB15.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)18.9%3.0

2. Adolis García (R)24.2%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.9%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.5%3.0

5. J.T. Realmuto (R)19.9%2.6

6. Brandon Marsh (L)27.1%2.0

7. Edmundo Sosa (R)23.3%2.0

8. Bryson Stott (L)17.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+104-138

BOLBetOnline+132-172

FANFanatics+110-145

DKDraftKings+108-137

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+115-152

BOVBovada+105-135

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate14.9% K/BF

vs LHB15.5%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)19.2%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.6%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)18.7%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)23.2%2.8

5. Nick Morabito (R)22.0%2.0

6. Tyrone Taylor (R)19.6%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)18.7%2.0

8. A.J. Ewing (L)22.9%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-162+132

FANFanatics-165+125

BOVBovada-170+130

DKDraftKings-176+137

BOLBetOnline-167+127

We project 3.3 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, May 20, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K, with Chris Sale (ATL) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against SD. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and SD has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Chris Sale (ATL) (94) — about 6.4 K vs MIA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Emerson Hancock (SEA) (71) — about 6.0 K vs CWS: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Joe Ryan (MIN) (71) — about 5.6 K vs HOU: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kyle Harrison (MIL) (69) — about 5.5 K vs CHC: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (65) — about 5.6 K vs TOR: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Aaron Civale is the arm to exploit it (48).
CWS is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Emerson Hancock is the arm to exploit it (71).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Trey Yesavage is the arm to exploit it (60).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Steven Matz is the arm to exploit it (32).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.3 strikeouts. Top play Shohei Ohtani punched out 4. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, May 20, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against SD. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, May 20, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (~6.5 K), Chris Sale (~6.4 K), Emerson Hancock (~6.0 K), Joe Ryan (~5.6 K), Kyle Harrison (~5.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Wednesday, May 20, 2026?: Shohei Ohtani punched out 4.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.