Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, May 18, 2026)?

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against SD. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, May 18, 2026: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~6.2 K), Bryan Woo (~6.1 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.8 K), J.T. Ginn (~5.7 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, May 18, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, May 18, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 8–2

CLEaway

DEThomeTop matchup42 Final · 6–16

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup73 Final · 4–5

CINaway

PHIhomeTop matchup37 Final · 0–12

ATLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup69 Final · 16–7

NYMaway

WSHhomeTop matchup51 Final · 6–7

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–1

BOSaway

KChomeTop matchup44 Final · 3–6

HOUaway

MINhomeTop matchup32 Final · 9–3

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup83 Final · 6–7

TEXaway

COLhomeTop matchup76 Final · 1–2

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup77 Final · 0–1

LADaway

SDhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–12

SFaway

AZhomeTop matchup41 Final · 1–6

CWSaway

SEAhomeTop matchup94

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)19.3%3.0

3. Ty France (R)18.7%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)22.6%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.8%3.0

6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.5%2.7

7. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.7%2.0

8. Ramón Laureano (R)28.0%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Randal Grichuk (R)20.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.1%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)17.7%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)26.9%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (L)25.1%3.0

6. Jarred Kelenic (L)26.7%2.3

7. Tristan Peters (L)21.0%2.0

8. Drew Romo (L)22.7%2.0

9. Chase Meidroth (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)24.9%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)22.4%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)21.9%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)22.8%3.0

5. Blake Perkins (R)19.2%3.0

6. Jake Bauers (L)20.7%2.3

7. Luis Rengifo (R)20.5%2.0

8. Sal Frelick (L)19.2%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness26.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.0%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)26.3%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.6%2.1

5. Yoán Moncada (L)27.5%2.0

6. Jo Adell (R)23.8%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)25.2%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.7%2.0

9. Jose Siri (R)35.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (R)24.0%3.0

2. Brenton Doyle (R)23.9%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)19.0%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)29.2%3.0

5. Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.4%2.9

6. Jake McCarthy (L)21.6%2.0

7. Edouard Julien (L)26.4%2.0

8. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.0%2.0

9. Mickey Moniak (L)29.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)18.5%3.0

2. Colton Cowser (L)25.9%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)18.8%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.7%2.4

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)28.1%2.0

6. Coby Mayo (R)24.7%2.0

7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.0%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)26.3%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.5% K/BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.6%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.3%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)20.2%3.0

4. Andrés Giménez (L)17.7%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)21.0%2.8

6. Ernie Clement (R)15.9%2.0

7. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.2%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (R)25.2%2.0

9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sandy León (L)24.1%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)19.7%3.0

3. Jorge Mateo (R)21.1%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)26.1%3.0

5. José Azócar (R)22.0%2.8

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.6%2.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)18.2%2.0

8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.7%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.6%3.0

2. Mookie Betts (R)18.0%3.0

3. Alex Call (R)20.0%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.1%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)19.0%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)22.5%2.1

7. Andy Pages (R)19.6%2.0

8. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.7%2.0

9. Hyeseong Kim (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.0%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)19.8%3.0

3. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.6%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.1%2.2

5. Daylen Lile (L)19.4%2.0

6. Joey Wiemer (R)29.8%2.0

7. José Tena (L)24.2%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.9%2.0

9. Drew Millas (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)25.4%3.0

2. Mickey Gasper (L)19.6%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.7%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)27.4%3.0

5. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.7%3.0

6. Andruw Monasterio (R)20.1%2.8

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.2%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)24.1%2.0

9. Nick Sogard (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Colt Keith (L)24.7%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.2%3.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)20.6%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)26.2%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)31.2%2.8

6. Zach McKinstry (L)19.0%2.0

7. Matt Vierling (R)20.0%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (L)18.8%2.0

9. Gage Workman (L)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)19.3%3.0

2. Jorge Barrosa (R)21.3%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.2%3.0

4. Jonathan Loáisiga (R)22.0%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (R)14.6%2.9

6. Gabriel Moreno (R)22.6%2.0

7. Jose Fernandez (R)23.7%2.0

8. Tim Tawa (R)22.0%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt McLain (R)20.9%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.2%3.0

3. Spencer Steer (R)21.1%3.0

4. Dane Myers (R)21.3%3.0

5. Sal Stewart (R)20.1%2.3

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)25.3%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)26.1%2.0

8. TJ Friedl (L)22.8%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)10.7%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.1%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)18.8%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)28.8%2.1

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)26.9%2.0

6. Matt Shaw (R)20.8%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)20.0%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.5%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)18.4%3.0

2. Bryce Harper (L)21.5%3.0

3. Jhoan Duran (R)22.0%3.0

4. Edmundo Sosa (R)23.2%3.0

5. Adolis García (R)25.0%2.7

6. Bryson Stott (L)17.5%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.3%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)21.7%2.0

9. Brandon Marsh (L)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.6% K/BF

vs LHB18.0%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Will Brennan (L)19.7%3.0

2. Drew Gilbert (L)20.4%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)23.3%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.3%3.0

5. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.4

6. Matt Chapman (R)24.8%2.0

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.8%2.0

8. Harrison Bader (R)25.8%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)20.0%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)19.4%3.0

3. Victor Caratini (L)19.1%2.8

4. Kody Clemens (L)24.4%2.0

5. Josh Bell (L)24.9%2.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)17.2%2.0

7. Brooks Lee (L)17.3%2.0

8. Tristan Gray (L)25.3%2.0

9. James Outman (L)28.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Angel Martínez (R)18.9%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)15.1%3.0

3. Petey Halpin (L)21.7%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.7%3.0

5. David Fry (R)25.3%3.0

6. Travis Bazzana (L)20.3%2.9

7. Steven Kwan (L)18.0%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)21.7%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Hunter Feduccia (L)23.1%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.8%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)16.8%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)20.8%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)23.8%2.5

6. Chandler Simpson (L)16.7%2.0

7. Nick Fortes (R)18.2%2.0

8. Taylor Walls (R)19.7%2.0

9. Richie Palacios (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.2 BF

Expected batters faced20.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Alika Williams (R)22.1%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)21.8%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)23.5%2.2

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.4%2.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.6%2.0

6. Henry Bolte (R)22.6%2.0

7. Jeff McNeil (L)17.4%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)24.1%2.0

9. Lawrence Butler (L)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)19.5%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)18.1%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)19.0%3.0

4. Vidal Bruján (L)20.9%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)23.6%2.4

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.3%2.0

7. A.J. Ewing (L)20.0%2.0

8. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.1%2.0

9. Hayden Senger (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Esteury Ruiz (R)23.0%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)13.4%3.0

3. Christopher Morel (R)24.3%3.0

4. Leo Jiménez (R)19.5%3.0

5. Owen Caissie (L)28.0%3.0

6. Jakob Marsee (L)21.4%2.1

7. Connor Norby (R)26.3%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)15.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.9%3.0

2. Isaac Paredes (R)17.9%2.8

3. Yordan Alvarez (L)20.2%2.0

4. Christian Walker (R)21.9%2.0

5. Zach Cole (L)26.3%2.0

6. Braden Shewmake (L)21.1%2.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)25.6%2.0

8. Cam Smith (R)22.8%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)14.8%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.2%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.2%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.4%2.5

5. Starling Marte (R)22.9%2.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)25.0%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)22.6%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)18.0%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)16.6%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.5%3.0

3. Randy Arozarena (R)23.4%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)20.4%3.0

5. Dominic Canzone (L)22.7%2.1

6. Luke Raley (L)24.1%2.0

7. Cole Young (L)25.8%2.0

8. Colt Emerson (L)21.6%2.0

9. Jhonny Pereda (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB15.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)19.5%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)25.6%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)22.2%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)15.4%3.0

5. Trent Grisham (L)24.3%2.1

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%2.0

7. Anthony Volpe (R)20.1%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)24.6%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB15.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.6%3.0

2. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.1%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)18.8%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)23.2%3.0

5. Danny Jansen (R)23.9%2.0

6. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.0%2.0

7. Justin Foscue (R)23.8%2.0

8. Alejandro Osuna (L)24.2%2.0

9. Evan Carter (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, May 18, 2026

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, May 18, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K, with Bryan Woo (SEA) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against SD. He's missing bats at a 26% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and SD has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Bryan Woo (SEA) (94) — about 6.1 K vs CWS: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) (83) — about 5.8 K vs MIL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) (77) — about 5.7 K vs LAA: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 27% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (76) — about 5.8 K vs COL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Shane McClanahan (TB) (73) — about 5.7 K vs BAL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 27% of the time in this spot — J.T. Ginn is the arm to exploit it (77).
COL is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — MacKenzie Gore is the arm to exploit it (76).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Shane McClanahan is the arm to exploit it (73).
CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Bryan Woo is the arm to exploit it (94).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.3 strikeouts. Top play Yoshinobu Yamamoto punched out 8. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, May 18, 2026)?: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.2 K against SD. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, May 18, 2026: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~6.2 K), Bryan Woo (~6.1 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.8 K), J.T. Ginn (~5.7 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Monday, May 18, 2026?: Yoshinobu Yamamoto punched out 8.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.