Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against STL. A 34% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, May 25, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~6.7 K), Nolan McLean (~6.3 K), Will Warren (~5.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~5.9 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, May 25, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

★ Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.8Jacob MisiorowskiMIL vs STLwe project 6.7 K vs the 8.5 lineUnder 8.5-149

Δ1.3Luis CastilloSEA vs ATHwe project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.5-155

Δ1.3Ben BrownCHC vs PITwe project 4.3 K vs the 5.5 lineUnder 5.5-121

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

Final · 1–2

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup42 Final · 7–9

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup70 Final · 1–3

MINaway

CWShomeTop matchup66 Final · 1–5

STLaway

MILhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–3

NYYaway

KChomeTop matchup81 Final · 7–2

CINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup93 Final · 6–2

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup55 Final · 10–2

WSHaway

CLEhomeTop matchup45 Final · 3–0

PHIaway

SDhomeTop matchup77 Final · 9–0

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup52 Final · 8–2

MIAaway

TORhomeTop matchup55 Final · 3–5

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup70 Final · 9–2

SEAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup53

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate33.5% K/BF

vs LHB35.9%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.5%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.3%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)16.6%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)23.8%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)26.5%2.7

6. Masyn Winn (R)21.8%2.0

7. Bryan Torres (L)20.7%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)20.7%2.0

9. José Fermín (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 8.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+124-152

DKDraftKings+117-149

BRBetRivers+114-152

BOVBovada+120-160

We project 6.7 K vs the 8.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB27.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)21.4%3.0

2. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.1%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)19.2%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.5%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)24.5%3.0

6. Dane Myers (R)22.2%2.6

7. Spencer Steer (R)20.5%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.8%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+118-144

FANFanatics+110-145

DKDraftKings+111-142

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+115-150

We project 6.3 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB27.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)16.1%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.3%3.0

3. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.7%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.4%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)26.5%2.8

6. Lucas Erceg (L)22.0%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)25.5%2.0

8. Nick Loftin (R)18.0%2.0

9. Lane Thomas (R)28.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+126-168

DKDraftKings+122-156

BRBetRivers+125-167

BOVBovada+130-170

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)25.0%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)18.7%3.0

3. Xander Bogaerts (R)16.7%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)21.5%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)21.6%3.0

6. Nick Castellanos (R)25.1%2.2

7. Ty France (R)26.0%2.0

8. Ramón Laureano (R)24.6%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+106-140

FANFanatics+100-130

DKDraftKings+104-132

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+106-141

BOVBovada+105-135

We project 5.9 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.3%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)26.0%3.0

3. Edouard Julien (L)26.3%3.0

4. Tyler Freeman (R)14.8%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.1%2.6

6. Willi Castro (L)24.7%2.0

7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.1%2.0

8. Braxton Fulford (R)22.8%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+114-140

DKDraftKings+115-147

FANFanatics+105-140

BRBetRivers+117-157

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOVBovada+110-145

We project 5.4 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB25.6%

vs RHB24.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.2%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.0%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.5%3.0

4. Oliver Dunn (L)26.0%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)21.4%3.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)21.4%2.4

7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)19.7%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)20.4%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-102-120

FANFanatics-105-125

DKDraftKings-102-124

BRBetRivers-114-117

MGMBetMGM-110-118

BOVBovada-105-125

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)19.3%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.2%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (R)19.3%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.3%2.7

5. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.9%2.0

6. Leody Taveras (R)24.8%2.0

7. Blaze Alexander (R)23.6%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)25.6%2.0

9. Colton Cowser (L)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+128-172

BRBetRivers+155-210

BOVBovada+130-170

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.6%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)16.0%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)26.3%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.2%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)27.3%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)21.4%3.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)23.0%2.2

7. Tristan Peters (L)21.2%2.0

8. Drew Romo (L)23.2%2.0

9. Rikuu Nishida (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-154

DKDraftKings+118-151

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+115-152

BOVBovada+115-150

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.6%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)26.3%3.0

3. Ben Rice (L)21.6%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.7%3.0

5. Max Schuemann (R)23.2%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.9%3.0

7. Anthony Volpe (R)25.6%2.2

8. J.C. Escarra (L)22.3%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-128+104

FANFanatics-140+105

DKDraftKings-141+110

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BRBetRivers-141+107

BOVBovada-130+100

We project 5.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)15.9%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)23.7%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.1%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)17.8%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.0%2.8

6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)28.3%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.0%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)22.8%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)28.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+130-160

DKDraftKings+116-148

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+114-152

BOVBovada+125-165

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)15.5%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)12.3%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)18.7%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)25.1%2.9

5. Jakob Marsee (L)20.2%2.0

6. Javier Sanoja (R)16.1%2.0

7. Owen Caissie (L)32.0%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-140+114

FANFanatics-160+120

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-157+117

BOVBovada-145+110

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Cortes (L)14.6%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)25.1%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)20.4%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.3%3.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)17.9%2.3

6. Henry Bolte (R)20.0%2.0

7. Jeff McNeil (L)17.4%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)25.1%2.0

9. Darell Hernaiz (R)19.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-186+136

MGMBetMGM-165+125

BRBetRivers-155+116

BOVBovada-180+135

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)22.4%3.0

2. Alejandro Osuna (L)17.2%3.0

3. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.9%2.5

4. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.4%2.0

5. Jake Burger (R)24.2%2.0

6. Justin Foscue (R)26.0%2.0

7. Andrew McCutchen (R)25.8%2.0

8. Danny Jansen (R)22.6%2.0

9. Michael Helman (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-146+110

FANFanatics-145+110

DKDraftKings-134+105

BRBetRivers-134+100

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOVBovada-145+110

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.4% K/BF

vs LHB15.6%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)25.7%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.4%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.5%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.2%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)23.9%3.0

6. Daniel Susac (R)25.5%3.0

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)23.4%2.3

8. Harrison Bader (R)25.8%2.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-106-122

FANFanatics+100-130

DKDraftKings+104-133

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BRBetRivers-118-113

BOVBovada+105-135

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)24.7%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)24.0%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)20.6%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)22.1%3.0

5. Andrew Vaughn (R)17.2%2.8

6. Luis Rengifo (R)21.7%2.0

7. Blake Perkins (R)21.7%2.0

8. Garrett Mitchell (L)27.0%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-154

FANFanatics+115-150

DKDraftKings+115-146

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+120-162

BOVBovada+115-150

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)23.3%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.8%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.1%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)16.6%2.6

5. Brandon Marsh (L)22.6%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)19.6%2.0

7. Adolis García (R)29.7%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)19.8%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-144

DKDraftKings+111-142

BRBetRivers+112-148

BOVBovada+115-150

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.5%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)17.3%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)18.9%3.0

4. José Tena (L)28.6%3.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)22.7%3.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)19.5%2.5

7. Jacob Young (R)17.9%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)19.5%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+118-144

FANFanatics+120-160

DKDraftKings+117-150

BRBetRivers+117-157

BOVBovada+115-150

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.3%3.0

2. Ian Happ (L)30.5%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)21.4%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)17.0%3.0

5. Michael Conforto (L)25.7%2.4

6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.1%2.0

7. Seiya Suzuki (R)27.3%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)21.0%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+124-152

BRBetRivers+125-167

BOVBovada+120-160

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Cole (L)29.8%3.0

2. Braden Shewmake (L)19.8%3.0

3. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.6%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)23.4%3.0

5. Jake Meyers (R)22.6%2.2

6. Cam Smith (R)27.0%2.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)27.1%2.0

8. Nick Allen (R)21.1%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)18.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-142

DKDraftKings+116-149

BRBetRivers+108-143

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOVBovada+100-130

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.9 BF

Expected batters faced16.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Spencer Horwitz (L)18.0%2.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.0%2.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.9%2.0

4. Nick Gonzales (R)17.5%2.0

5. Oneil Cruz (L)29.8%2.0

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.1%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)23.4%2.0

8. Jhostynxon Garcia (R)22.8%1.9

9. Henry Davis (R)21.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+106-140

FANFanatics+100-130

DKDraftKings-105-121

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers+105-139

BOVBovada+100-130

We project 4.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)22.3%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)16.1%3.0

3. Mark Vientos (R)20.1%3.0

4. Marcus Semien (R)22.2%3.0

5. A.J. Ewing (L)23.4%2.8

6. MJ Melendez (L)23.4%2.0

7. Nick Morabito (R)22.0%2.0

8. Brett Baty (L)27.6%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-180+134

BRBetRivers-182+135

BOVBovada-180+135

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.4% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.3 BF

Expected batters faced20.3

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.2%3.0

2. Mookie Betts (R)15.8%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)18.5%2.3

4. Andy Pages (R)20.0%2.0

5. Kyle Tucker (L)19.4%2.0

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)24.8%2.0

7. Will Smith (R)18.7%2.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)25.0%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)16.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-136+102

DKDraftKings-128+100

BRBetRivers-115-115

BOVBovada-145+110

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.4%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)15.8%3.0

3. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)32.2%3.0

5. Myles Straw (R)16.7%3.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)13.6%2.1

7. Andrés Giménez (L)22.4%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.2%2.0

9. Lenyn Sosa (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-114-114

DKDraftKings-102-124

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BRBetRivers-113-118

BOVBovada-115-115

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.5% K/BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.8%3.0

2. Victor Robles (R)21.1%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)15.8%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.1%3.0

5. Luke Raley (L)27.2%2.9

6. Cole Young (L)19.6%2.0

7. Dominic Canzone (L)21.3%2.0

8. Jhonny Pereda (R)23.7%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-150+122

DKDraftKings-152+119

MGMBetMGM-150+110

FANFanatics-160+120

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-160+120

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.2% K/BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB15.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.6%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (R)23.0%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)16.0%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)21.8%3.0

5. Kody Clemens (L)19.7%2.3

6. Tristan Gray (L)30.3%2.0

7. Luke Keaschall (R)20.3%2.0

8. Trevor Larnach (L)22.7%2.0

9. Victor Caratini (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+122-150

FANFanatics+120-160

DKDraftKings+115-146

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+120-160

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Travis Bazzana (L)22.9%2.0

2. David Fry (R)26.4%2.0

3. Petey Halpin (L)22.0%2.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.1%2.0

5. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.1%1.6

6. Angel Martínez (R)18.2%1.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)17.8%1.0

8. Patrick Bailey (R)23.8%1.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)19.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, May 25, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Nolan McLean (NYM) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jacob Misiorowski

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against STL. He's missing bats at a 34% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and STL has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Nolan McLean (NYM) (93) — about 6.3 K vs CIN: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Will Warren (NYY) (81) — about 5.7 K vs KC: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (77) — about 5.9 K vs SD: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (70) — about 5.4 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) (70) — about 5.7 K vs TB: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Shane McClanahan is the arm to exploit it (69).
HOU is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Kumar Rocker is the arm to exploit it (41).
PHI is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Griffin Canning is the arm to exploit it (45).
TEX is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Tatsuya Imai is the arm to exploit it (52).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.9 strikeouts. Top play Jacob Misiorowski punched out 12. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, May 25, 2026)?: Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against STL. A 34% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, May 25, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~6.7 K), Nolan McLean (~6.3 K), Will Warren (~5.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~5.9 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Monday, May 25, 2026?: Jacob Misiorowski punched out 12.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.