Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 31, 2026)?

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against HOU. A 35% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 31, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~6.8 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~6.1 K), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (~5.5 K), Nolan McLean (~5.1 K), Spencer Strider (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, May 31, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

★ Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.7Jacob MisiorowskiMIL vs HOUwe project 6.8 K vs the 8.5 lineUnder 8.5-117

Δ1.6Braxton AshcraftPIT vs MINwe project 6.1 K vs the 4.5 lineOver 4.5-150

Δ1.4Nolan McLeanNYM vs MIAwe project 5.1 K vs the 6.5 lineUnder 6.5-143

Δ1.3Shane McClanahanTB vs LAAwe project 5.2 K vs the 6.5 lineUnder 6.5-140

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

Final · 5–9

TORaway

BALhomeTop matchup50 Final · 2–4

SDaway

WSHhomeTop matchup42 Final · 3–9

MINaway

PIThomeTop matchup73 Final · 9–4

BOSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup40 Final · 2–5

LAAaway

TBhomeTop matchup52 Final · 4–6

ATLaway

CINhomeTop matchup62 Final · 1–10

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup63 Final · 1–2

DETaway

CWShomeTop matchup55 Final · 2–0

MILaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–6

KCaway

TEXhomeTop matchup54 Final · 19–6

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup35 Final · 13–8

NYYaway

ATHhomeTop matchup61 Final · 2–3

AZaway

SEAhomeTop matchup45 Final · 1–9

PHIaway

LADhomeTop matchup69 Final · 1–5

CHCaway

STLhomeTop matchup58

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate35.0% K/BF

vs LHB37.9%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.7%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.9%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)21.8%3.0

4. Taylor Trammell (L)26.3%3.0

5. Isaac Paredes (R)17.0%2.8

6. Cam Smith (R)25.5%2.0

7. Jake Meyers (R)21.0%2.0

8. Nick Allen (R)21.7%2.0

9. César Salazar (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 8.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-114-117

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings+101-128

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-110-120

We project 6.8 K vs the 8.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Austin Martin (R)21.3%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)17.8%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)22.8%3.0

4. James Outman (L)31.3%3.0

5. Trevor Larnach (L)21.2%3.0

6. Orlando Arcia (R)18.7%3.0

7. Luke Keaschall (R)17.5%2.6

8. Tristan Gray (L)25.9%2.0

9. Alex Jackson (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-161+126

FDFanDuel-150+124

We project 6.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.7%3.0

2. Garrett Stubbs (L)22.9%3.0

3. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.6%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)23.9%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)16.4%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)19.5%3.0

7. Rafael Marchán (L)20.2%2.3

8. Steward Berroa (L)22.3%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings-102-125

FDFanDuel+118-144

We project 5.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.3% K/BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness18.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.6%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)12.2%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)18.2%3.0

4. Leo Jiménez (R)18.4%3.0

5. Javier Sanoja (R)14.8%3.0

6. Jakob Marsee (L)20.0%2.3

7. Connor Norby (R)26.5%2.0

8. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.8%2.0

9. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+112-143

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+122-150

We project 5.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.9% K/BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)21.3%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)26.0%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)19.7%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.2%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)25.1%2.1

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)21.3%2.0

7. Spencer Steer (R)23.0%2.0

8. Will Benson (L)27.7%2.0

9. P.J. Higgins (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BRBetRivers-148+112

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-137+107

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-136+102

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.