Graded against results

Every fight projection we publish gets graded here after the card — no deletions, no do-overs. The record starts July 11, 2026 (UFC 329), the first card we projected live.

Running record: 81-36 (69% of picks correct across 11 cards). For context, always picking the betting favorite historically lands ~65% — beating that consistently is the bar we hold ourselves to before anything here becomes more than research.

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song

August 29, 2026 · model 9-4

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✗	Umar Nurmagomedov	71%	Song Yadong won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Denise Gomes	61%	Denise Gomes won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Kai Asakura	57%	Kai Asakura won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Sumudaerji	52%	Sumudaerji won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✗	Levi Rodrigues Jr.	59%	Ce Liu won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Bilal Hasan	70%	Bilal Hasan won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Andre Lima	73%	Andre Lima won — Submission R3
✓	Rei Tsuruya	73%	Rei Tsuruya won — Submission R1
✓	Sean Woodson	55%	Sean Woodson won — Decision - Split R3
✗	Xiao Long	59%	Francesco Nuzzi won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Lawrence Lui	68%	Hector Santiago won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Julia Polastri	69%	Julia Polastri won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Cameron Nelson	51%	Cameron Nelson won — Decision - Unanimous R3

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3

August 25, 2026 · model 3-2

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✗	Bella Mir	68%	Alex Apodaca won — Decision R3
✗	Mario Piazzon	66%	Guilherme Uriel won — Submission R1
✓	Sean Clancy Jr.	73%	Sean Clancy Jr. won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Ronald Humphrey	64%	Ronald Humphrey won — Submission R1
✓	Nick Galanti	50%	Nick Galanti won — KO/TKO R1

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues

August 22, 2026 · model 8-5

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✗	Anthony Hernandez	72%	Gregory Rodrigues won — Decision - Unanimous R5
✓	Vitor Petrino	59%	Vitor Petrino won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Reinier de Ridder	62%	Reinier de Ridder won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Mason Jones	55%	MarQuel Mederos won — KO/TKO R2
✗	Jeisla Chaves	54%	Carli Judice won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Anthony Wint	81%	Anthony Wint won — Submission R1
✓	Jamall Emmers	59%	Jamall Emmers won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Kennedy Nzechukwu	67%	Shamil Gaziev won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Chris Padilla	53%	Chris Padilla won — Submission R3
✓	Marcio Barbosa	67%	Marcio Barbosa won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Gauge Young	52%	Stan Dorsainvil won — Decision R3
✓	Jackson McVey	61%	Jackson McVey won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Shanelle Dyer	74%	Shanelle Dyer won — KO/TKO R3

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 2

August 18, 2026 · model 1-4

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✗	Namo Fazil	57%	Kaik Brito won — KO/TKO R3
✗	Douglas Rodrigues	65%	Trent Miller won — Submission R2
✓	Cristian Perez	59%	Cristian Perez won — KO/TKO R2
✗	Mahamed Aly	72%	Alik Lorenz won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Taner Trembley	56%	Roman Puga won — Decision - Unanimous R3

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry

August 15, 2026 · model 5-7

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✓	Islam Makhachev	63%	Islam Makhachev won — Decision - Unanimous R5
✗	Gillian Robertson	58%	Mackenzie Dern won — Decision - Unanimous R5
✓	Jalin Turner	58%	Jalin Turner won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Mansur Abdul-Malik	72%	Dustin Stoltzfus won — Submission R2
✓	Esteban Ribovics	73%	Esteban Ribovics won — KO/TKO R2
✗	Joel Álvarez	67%	Chidi Njokuani won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✗	Eduardo Chapolin	50%	Charles Johnson won — Submission R3
✓	Donte Johnson	81%	Donte Johnson won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Vicente Luque	64%	Tresean Gore won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✗	Rafael Tobias	64%	Lucas Fernando won — KO/TKO R3
✓	Neil Magny	55%	Neil Magny won — KO/TKO R2
✗	Myktybek Orolbai	72%	Jeremiah Wells won — Submission R3

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 1

August 11, 2026 · model 3-2

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✓	Anthony Wint	61%	Anthony Wint won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Abe Alsaghir	58%	Abe Alsaghir won — Decision - Split R3
✓	Bilal Hasan	62%	Bilal Hasan won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Ananias Mulumba	52%	Tom Pagliarulo won — KO/TKO R3
✗	Jon Kunneman	70%	Joe Kropschot won — Decision - Unanimous R3

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld

August 8, 2026 · model 12-0

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✓	Quillan Salkilld	62%	Quillan Salkilld won — Submission R1
✓	Diego Ferreira	50%	Diego Ferreira won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Yadier del Valle	74%	Yadier del Valle won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Alexia Thainara	72%	Alexia Thainara won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Ty Miller	72%	Ty Miller won — KO/TKO R3
✓	Steven Asplund	50%	Steven Asplund won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Diyar Nurgozhay	63%	Diyar Nurgozhay won — KO/TKO R1
✓	José Montanha	53%	José Montanha won — Submission R1
✓	Manoel Sousa	64%	Manoel Sousa won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Miles Johns	72%	Miles Johns won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Juliana Miller	62%	Juliana Miller won — Submission R2
✓	Carol Foro	54%	Carol Foro won — Decision - Unanimous R3

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

August 1, 2026 · model 10-4

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✓	Uroš Medić	53%	Uroš Medić won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Navajo Stirling	82%	Navajo Stirling won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Aleksandar Rakic	56%	Aleksandar Rakic won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✗	Duško Todorović	60%	Robert Valentin won — Submission R1
✗	Vlasto Čepo	56%	Gilbert Urbina won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Noah Gugnon	51%	Noah Gugnon won — Submission R1
✗	Ludovit Klein	77%	Tofiq Musayev won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Michael Oliveira	58%	Michael Oliveira won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Mark Vologdin	57%	Borislav Nikolic won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Bogdan Grad	53%	Bogdan Grad won — Submission R2
✓	Mateusz Rębecki	83%	Mateusz Rębecki won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Nina Milošević	56%	Nina Milošević won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Jovan Leka	77%	Jovan Leka won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Stephanie Luciano	66%	Stephanie Luciano won — Submission R1

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov

July 25, 2026 · model 9-3

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✓	Magomed Ankalaev	65%	Magomed Ankalaev won — KO/TKO R5
✗	Steve Erceg	58%	Ramazan Temirov won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Magomed Zaynukov	50%	Magomed Zaynukov won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Rizvan Kuniev	57%	Rizvan Kuniev won — KO/TKO R3
✗	Saygid Izagakhmaev	62%	Abubakar Vagaev won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Valter Walker	66%	Valter Walker won — Submission R1
✗	Dustin Jacoby	63%	Muhammad Said won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Sam Patterson	62%	Sam Patterson won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Axel Sola	56%	Axel Sola won — Submission R1
✓	Magomed Tuchalov	61%	Magomed Tuchalov won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Nurullo Aliev	72%	Nurullo Aliev won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Abdul Hussein	56%	Abdul Hussein won — Submission R3

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

July 18, 2026 · model 11-1

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✓	Dricus Du Plessis	52%	Dricus Du Plessis won — Decision - Unanimous R5
✓	Christian Leroy Duncan	76%	Christian Leroy Duncan won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Chase Hooper	80%	Chase Hooper won — Submission R1
✓	Fatima Kline	57%	Fatima Kline won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Tommy McMillen	61%	Tommy McMillen won — KO/TKO R3
✓	Jose Miguel Delgado	52%	Jose Miguel Delgado won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✗	Seokhyeon Ko	51%	Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Felipe Franco	52%	Felipe Franco won — KO/TKO R2
✓	Ezra Elliott	88%	Ezra Elliott won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Alden Coria	69%	Alden Coria won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	RJ Harris	67%	RJ Harris won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Dione Barbosa	53%	Dione Barbosa won — Submission R1

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

July 11, 2026 · model 10-4

	Our pick	Our %	Result
✓	Max Holloway	70%	Max Holloway won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Benoît Saint Denis	59%	Paddy Pimblett won — Submission R1
✓	Mario Bautista	56%	Mario Bautista won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✗	Lone'er Kavanagh	68%	Brandon Royval won — Submission R3
✗	Terrance McKinney	64%	King Green won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Robert Whittaker	54%	Robert Whittaker won — KO/TKO R3
✓	Gable Steveson	67%	Gable Steveson won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Adrian Yanez	55%	Adrian Yanez won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Luke Riley	67%	Luke Riley won — KO/TKO R1
✗	Tracy Cortez	51%	Wang Cong won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Damian Pinas	73%	Damian Pinas won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Farid Basharat	80%	Farid Basharat won — Decision - Unanimous R3
✓	Ryan Gandra	54%	Ryan Gandra won — KO/TKO R1
✓	Alessandro Costa	63%	Alessandro Costa won — Submission R2

Backtest: how the model grades on history

Out-of-sample walk-forward — for each year the model trains only on earlier years, then picks every fight. These picks were computed retrospectively, never published; they're also shown fight-by-fight on each past event page.

Backtest record: 2511-1588 (61.3% across 4,099 fights, 2019–2026). Honesty first: on the 2,718 fights with closing lines, the betting market is the sharper forecaster (log loss 0.601 vs our 0.653) — favorites hit 68%. That's exactly why leans are research, not picks.

Year	Picks	Record	Hit %	Log loss
2019	553	323-230	58.4%	0.6642
2020	492	315-177	64.0%	0.6426
2021	549	329-220	59.9%	0.6648
2022	558	338-220	60.6%	0.6553
2023	556	348-208	62.6%	0.6440
2024	562	342-220	60.9%	0.6576
2025	563	353-210	62.7%	0.6487
2026	266	163-103	61.3%	0.6486

When we say…	Fights	It happens
55%	1167	58%
64%	826	70%
74%	317	76%
83%	73	88%

A pick = whichever fighter our model gives more than 50%. Picks on small-sample fights count here too — the record reflects everything we publish. Research, not betting advice — 21+.