Graded against results
Every fight projection we publish gets graded here after the card — no deletions, no do-overs. The record starts July 11, 2026 (UFC 329), the first card we projected live.
Running record: 64-41 (61% of picks correct across 12 cards). For context, always picking the betting favorite historically lands ~65% — beating that consistently is the bar we hold ourselves to before anything here becomes more than research.
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 10
October 13, 2026 · model 3-2
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ | Ilias Bulaid | 61% | Erick Visconde won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Smilla Sundell | 83% | Smilla Sundell won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Luis Francischinelli | 57% | Luis Francischinelli won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Douglas da Lapa | 54% | Douglas da Lapa won — KO/TKO R3 |
| ✗ | Jason Asher | 67% | Greg Foster won — Decision R3 |
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
October 10, 2026 · model 5-6
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ | Christian Leroy Duncan | 58% | Brendan Allen won — Submission R5 |
| ✗ | Matheus Camilo | 68% | Jai Herbert won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Loopy Godínez | 61% | Loopy Godínez won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Andre Fili | 54% | Andre Fili won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✓ | Otari Tanzilovi | 54% | Otari Tanzilovi won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✓ | Julius Walker | 56% | Julius Walker won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✗ | Ismael Bonfim | 56% | Francisco Prado won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Leon Shahbazyan | 51% | Niko Price won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Felipe Franco | 72% | Brendson Ribeiro won — Submission R1 |
| ✗ | RJ Harris | 60% | Allen Frye Jr. won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Alice Pereira | 67% | Alice Pereira won — KO/TKO R1 |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 9
October 6, 2026 · model 3-2
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Preston LaGrange | 54% | Preston LaGrange won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Ozzy Martin | 54% | Salhahuddin Everett won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Alexander Chavez | 61% | Roque Conceição won — Submission R1 |
| ✓ | Mateus Soares | 57% | Mateus Soares won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Alivia Bierley | 51% | Alivia Bierley won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang
October 3, 2026 · model 11-3
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Natalia Silva | 53% | Natalia Silva won — Decision - Unanimous R5 |
| ✓ | Payton Talbott | 77% | Payton Talbott won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Esteban Ribovics | 55% | Esteban Ribovics won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Khaos Williams | 66% | Roberto Soldić won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✗ | Ateba Gautier | 74% | Roman Kopylov won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Imanol Rodriguez | 51% | Imanol Rodriguez won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Damian Pinas | 60% | Damian Pinas won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Marcus McGhee | 65% | Marcus McGhee won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Anthony Wint | 70% | Anthony Wint won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Mick Parkin | 51% | Johnny Walker won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Jacobe Smith | 85% | Jacobe Smith won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Alexander Hernandez | 62% | Alexander Hernandez won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✓ | Ismail Naurdiev | 57% | Ismail Naurdiev won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Eric Nolan | 57% | Eric Nolan won — KO/TKO R3 |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 8
September 29, 2026 · model 2-2
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | George Staines | 52% | George Staines won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Zaurbek Sabanov | 63% | Adama Diop won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✗ | Luca Borando | 50% | Ian Escuza won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Aieza Bertolso | 56% | Aieza Bertolso won — Submission R1 |
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos
September 26, 2026 · model 7-5
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Raul Rosas Jr. | 72% | Raul Rosas Jr. won — KO/TKO R5 |
| ✓ | Ailin Perez | 58% | Ailin Perez won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Luis Hernandez | 67% | Luis Hernandez won — Submission R1 |
| ✗ | Mehemmedeli Osmanli | 60% | Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu won — DQ R1 |
| ✗ | Melissa Amaya | 60% | Valesca Machado won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✗ | Rinya Nakamura | 62% | Brady Hiestand won — Submission R2 |
| ✓ | Rodolfo Vieira | 57% | Rodolfo Vieira won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✗ | Rodolfo Bellato | 60% | Christian Edwards won — KO/TKO R3 |
| ✓ | Elves Brener | 54% | Elves Brener won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Montel Jackson | 67% | Montel Jackson won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✗ | John Castaneda | 72% | Alatengheili won — Decision - Split R3 |
| ✓ | Yazmin Jauregui | 85% | Yazmin Jauregui won — KO/TKO R1 |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 7
September 22, 2026 · model 3-2
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Norbert Növényi Jr. | 74% | Norbert Növényi Jr. won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✗ | Jaden Ortega | 59% | Alvi Dasuyev won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Marcos Degli | 54% | Marcos Degli won — Submission R3 |
| ✓ | Piero Guaylupo | 58% | Piero Guaylupo won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✗ | Emilio Quissua | 64% | Damian Piwowarczyk won — KO/TKO R1 |
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
September 19, 2026 · model 6-6
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ | Joshua Van | 66% | Joshua Van won — Decision - Unanimous R5 |
| ✓ | Arman Tsarukyan | 68% | Arman Tsarukyan won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Dooho Choi | 67% | Patricio Pitbull won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Gable Steveson | 89% | Sean Sharaf won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Iwo Baraniewski | 53% | Alonzo Menifield won — Decision - Split R3 |
| ✗ | Charles Jourdain | 56% | Marlon Vera won — KO/TKO R3 |
| ✗ | Tai Tuivasa | 51% | Robelis Despaigne won — Decision - Split R3 |
| ✗ | JooSang Yoo | 53% | Michael Aswell won — Decision - Split R3 |
| ✓ | Ryan Gandra | 83% | Ryan Gandra won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Edmen Shahbazyan | 62% | Edmen Shahbazyan won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Casey O'Neill | 60% | Casey O'Neill won — Submission R1 |
| ✓ | Joanderson Brito | 70% | Joanderson Brito won — KO/TKO R1 |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 6
September 15, 2026 · model 4-1
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ | Zevan Hunt | 59% | Mayton Perea won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Igor Cavalcanti | 65% | Igor Cavalcanti won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Akbar Abdullaev | 71% | Akbar Abdullaev won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Luis Hernandez | 52% | Luis Hernandez won — Submission R2 |
| ✓ | Tyshawn Williams | 63% | Tyshawn Williams won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
September 12, 2026 · model 9-4
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ | Jose Miguel Delgado | 57% | Jean Silva won — Submission R3 |
| ✓ | Brandon Moreno | 50% | Brandon Moreno won — Decision - Split R3 |
| ✓ | Tommy McMillen | 58% | Tommy McMillen won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✗ | Manon Fiorot | 56% | Alexa Grasso won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Curtis Blaydes | 56% | Curtis Blaydes won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | David Martinez | 69% | David Martinez won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✗ | Édgar Cháirez | 52% | Tim Elliott won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Ignacio Bahamondes | 74% | Ignacio Bahamondes won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Yousri Belgaroui | 55% | Yousri Belgaroui won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Tommy Gantt | 72% | Tommy Gantt won — Submission R3 |
| ✗ | Rafa Garcia | 54% | Rongzhu won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Sean King | 59% | Sean King won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Regina Tarin | 68% | Regina Tarin won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 5
September 8, 2026 · model 4-1
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ | Arlind Berisha | 56% | Quentin Pasley won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Isaac Moreno | 52% | Isaac Moreno won — Decision R3 |
| ✓ | Martin Kozák | 75% | Martin Kozák won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✓ | Apollo Gomes | 60% | Apollo Gomes won — Decision R3 |
| ✓ | Christian Natividad | 51% | Christian Natividad won — KO/TKO R1 |
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
September 5, 2026 · model 7-7
| WizPick | Our % | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✗ | Dan Hooker | 51% | Salahdine Parnasse won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Farés Ziam | 63% | Axel Sola won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Michael Page | 52% | Michael Page won — Decision R3 |
| ✓ | Daniil Donchenko | 61% | Daniil Donchenko won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Kurtis Campbell | 68% | Kurtis Campbell won — Submission R3 |
| ✓ | Losene Keita | 58% | Losene Keita won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✓ | Felipe Lima | 63% | Felipe Lima won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Mario Pinto | 76% | Mario Pinto won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✗ | Oumar Sy | 70% | Modestas Bukauskas won — KO/TKO R2 |
| ✗ | Nathaniel Wood | 66% | Pavel Andrusca won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✓ | Fabia Sintes | 80% | Fabia Sintes won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✗ | Klaudia Syguła | 60% | Nora Cornolle won — Decision - Unanimous R3 |
| ✗ | Luis Felipe Dias | 62% | Matthieu Duclos won — KO/TKO R1 |
| ✗ | Sofia Montenegro | 61% | Delphine Benouaich won — Submission R2 |
Backtest: how the model grades on history
Out-of-sample walk-forward — for each year the model trains only on earlier years, then picks every fight. These picks were computed retrospectively, never published; they're also shown fight-by-fight on each past event page.
Backtest record: 2511-1588 (61.3% across 4,099 fights, 2019–2026). Honesty first: on the 2,718 fights with closing lines, the betting market is the sharper forecaster (log loss 0.601 vs our 0.653) — favorites hit 68%. That's exactly why leans are research, not picks.
| Year | Picks | Record | Hit % | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 553 | 323-230 | 58.4% | 0.6642 |
| 2020 | 492 | 315-177 | 64.0% | 0.6426 |
| 2021 | 549 | 329-220 | 59.9% | 0.6648 |
| 2022 | 558 | 338-220 | 60.6% | 0.6553 |
| 2023 | 556 | 348-208 | 62.6% | 0.6440 |
| 2024 | 562 | 342-220 | 60.9% | 0.6576 |
| 2025 | 563 | 353-210 | 62.7% | 0.6487 |
| 2026 | 266 | 163-103 | 61.3% | 0.6486 |
| When we say… | Fights | It happens |
|---|---|---|
| 55% | 1167 | 58% |
| 64% | 826 | 70% |
| 74% | 317 | 76% |
| 83% | 73 | 88% |
A pick = whichever fighter our model gives more than 50%. Picks on small-sample fights count here too — the record reflects everything we publish. Research, not betting advice — 21+.