MatchWiz Scores

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman

Sat, July 18 at 5:00 PM EDT — Paycom Center · Oklahoma City · OK. Every fight shows our line (our model's win probability and its fair odds) directly above the books' line, so you can see where we agree and where we don't. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape behind our number.

⚙ New model, graded in the open. Our fight model is calibrated (when it says 65%, that happens about 65% of the time) but it hasn't proven it can out-price the books — so nothing here is a pick. A ◆ lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most; we're tracking every card publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.

Main Card

Prelims

Our line = the odds our model's win probability implies. Best book = the longest price across the ~7 US books we track, with the books' percentage shown vig-free. The bar under each matchup runs from the red corner (left) to the blue corner (right), split at our win probability. Small sample = a fighter with almost no UFC tape, where our number is a rough guess. Lines move — always confirm at the book. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Recent cards

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2Jul 11 · model 10-4
  • Max Holloway def. Conor McGregor — KO/TKO R1
  • Paddy Pimblett def. Benoît Saint Denis — Submission R1
  • Mario Bautista def. Cory Sandhagen — Decision - Unanimous R3
  • Brandon Royval def. Lone'er Kavanagh — Submission R3
  • King Green def. Terrance McKinney — KO/TKO R1
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. TorresJun 27
  • Rafael Fiziev def. Manuel Torres — KO/TKO R2
  • Shara Magomedov def. Michel Pereira — Decision - Unanimous R3
  • Matheus Camilo def. Nazim Sadykhov — KO/TKO R1
  • Asu Almabayev def. Charles Johnson — Submission R3
  • Ikram Aliskerov def. Brunno Ferreira — Decision - Unanimous R3
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi 2Jun 20
  • Manel Kape def. Kyoji Horiguchi — KO/TKO R3
  • Navajo Stirling def. Ion Cutelaba — KO/TKO R2
  • Christian Rodriguez def. Hyder Amil — Submission R1
  • Murtazali Magomedov def. Melsik Baghdasaryan — Submission R1
  • Vinicius Oliveira def. Andre Fili — KO/TKO R2