UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Sat, July 11, 2026 — T-Mobile Arena · Las Vegas · NV. Model record on this card: 10-4. Tap a fight for the tale of the tape.
Card complete
14 of 14 fights finalEvery fight we priced, graded against the result — not a curated subset. A method call counts when the outcome we made most likely is the one that happened. Leans are only the spots where we disagreed with the book, which is the subset worth betting.
Main Card
fight lengthwe said 59% over 2½ · went R1 1:09 ✗ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 44% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 54% under 2½ · went R1 0:52 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 43% · was Submission ✗ we had it 21%
fight lengthwe said 57% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 53% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 51% under 2½ · went R3 3:40 ✗ over
how it endswe said Decision 46% · was Submission ✗ we had it 18%
fight lengthwe said 51% over 2½ · went R1 4:59 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 48% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 35%
Prelims
fight lengthwe said 56% under 2½ · went R3 1:01 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 45% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 64% under 2½ · went R1 2:31 ✓ under
how it endswe said KO/TKO 50% · was KO/TKO ✓
fight lengthwe said 52% over 2½ · went R1 2:47 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 48% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 36%
fight lengthwe said 59% over 2½ · went R1 3:03 ✗ under
how it endswe said Decision 55% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 29%
Early Prelims
fight lengthwe said 76% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 73% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 53% under 2½ · went R1 4:44 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 43% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 37%
fight lengthwe said 62% over 2½ · went the distance ✓ over
how it endswe said Decision 56% · was Decision - Unanimous ✓
fight lengthwe said 57% under 2½ · went R1 1:15 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 39% · was KO/TKO ✗ we had it 39%
fight lengthwe said 52% under 2½ · went R2 2:19 ✓ under
how it endswe said Decision 45% · was Submission ✗ we had it 19%