Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, May 15, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Clay Holmes. The righty is going deep on .082 HR/PA against righties this year — and .095 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Clay Holmes has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Clay Holmes too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (98) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: big-time bat at .056 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (87) vs RHP Jack Kochanowicz: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (78) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: real bat at .044 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (70) vs RHP Aaron Nola: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.030), due to bounce back.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (69) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (67) vs RHP Jack Leiter: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (66) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: real bat at .046 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .108 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .030 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .047 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.