Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, May 16, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Huascar Brazobán. The righty is going deep on .079 HR/PA against righties this year — and .085 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Huascar Brazobán has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 7 career PA against Huascar Brazobán, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (88) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .048 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (84) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: big-time bat at .057 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (84) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (64) vs RHP Huascar Brazobán: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (63) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (59) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.069).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (59) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .029 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .113 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.