Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, May 28, 2026
Top home runs spot: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Simeon Woods Richardson. The lefty is going deep on .095 HR/PA against righties this year — and .109 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Simeon Woods Richardson has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .053 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Simeon Woods Richardson, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (92) vs RHP Davis Martin: big-time bat at .055 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (74) vs RHP Colin Rea: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (71) vs RHP Simeon Woods Richardson: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (61) vs RHP Jack Flaherty: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111), due to bounce back.
- Michael Busch (CHC) (51) vs RHP Paul Skenes: solid bat at .039 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) (49) vs RHP Colin Rea: solid bat at .036 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .095 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .056 against righties this year.
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .029 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Munetaka Murakami finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.