Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Lucas Giolito. The lefty is going deep on .096 HR/PA against righties this year — and .061 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Lucas Giolito has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .050 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .238 in 21 career PA against Lucas Giolito. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (86) vs RHP Seth Lugo: big-time bat at .052 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.087).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (83) vs RHP Brayan Bello: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (80) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (80) vs RHP Jared Jones: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.143).
- José Ramírez (CLE) (74) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (69) vs RHP Kai-Wei Teng: real bat at .048 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (66) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.146).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .096 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .066 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .063 against lefties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.