MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Home Runs · Tuesday, July 7, 2026

SEA @ MIA Home Runs matchups · Tuesday, July 7, 2026

SEA
SEA
Seattle Mariners
vs
6:40 PM EDT
MIA
Miami Marlins
MIA
loanDepot parkElevation 10 ftCenter Field 407 ft

SEA SEA Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from SEA's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03727 BF
Season.013239 BF
Last 2 Years.029479 BF
wOBA allowed.279
Hard-Hit %35%

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04323 BF
Season.037187 BF
Last 2 Years.048415 BF
wOBA allowed.277
Hard-Hit %31%

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30vs LAA0
Jul 2vs LAA0
Jul 3vs TOR0
Jul 4vs TOR0
Jul 5vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03727 PA
Season.013239 PA
Last 2 Years.029479 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-2

Home Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.15

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

J.P. Crawford's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30vs LAA0
Jul 2vs LAA0
Jul 3vs TOR0
Jul 4vs TOR1
Jul 5vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.042

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04323 PA
Season.037187 PA
Last 2 Years.048415 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.319
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Home Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.151

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Randy Arozarena's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30vs LAA0
Jul 2vs LAA0
Jul 3vs TOR0
Jul 4vs TOR1
Jul 5vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03727 PA
Season.013239 PA
Last 2 Years.029479 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-3

Home Runs1 in 3 PA
Career Average.333
Plate Appearances3
HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.139

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Cal Raleigh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30vs LAA0
Jul 2vs LAA0
Jul 3vs TOR0
Jul 4vs TOR0
Jul 5vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03727 PA
Season.013239 PA
Last 2 Years.029479 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-3

Home Runs1 in 3 PA
Career Average.333
Plate Appearances3
HR · K · BB1 · 0 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.136

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Josh Naylor's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 27@ CLE0
Jul 2vs LAA0
Jul 3vs TOR0
Jul 4vs TOR0
Jul 5vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03727 PA
Season.013239 PA
Last 2 Years.029479 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-2

Home Runs0 in 2 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances2
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.133

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Luke Raley's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30vs LAA0
Jul 2vs LAA0
Jul 3vs TOR0
Jul 4vs TOR0
Jul 5vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03727 PA
Season.013239 PA
Last 2 Years.029479 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.128

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Cole Young's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2.3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 18vs BAL0
Jun 20vs BOS0
Jun 25@ PIT0
Jun 28@ CLE0
Jul 5vs TOR1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.042

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04323 PA
Season.037187 PA
Last 2 Years.048415 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.319
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.132

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Mitch Garver's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30vs LAA0
Jul 2vs LAA0
Jul 3vs TOR0
Jul 4vs TOR0
Jul 5vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.026

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.03727 PA
Season.013239 PA
Last 2 Years.029479 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.306
Hard-Hit % Allowed38%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.123

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Colt Emerson's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 29vs LAA0
Jun 30vs LAA0
Jul 3vs TOR0
Jul 4vs TOR0
Jul 5vs TOR0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.042

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.04323 PA
Season.037187 PA
Last 2 Years.048415 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L9–1
ERA2.53
WHIP1.11
IP103.0
H / K / BB78 / 112 / 36

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.319
Hard-Hit % Allowed32%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.125

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Victor Robles's full player page →

MIA MIA Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from MIA's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).
?
Probable pitcher not announcedMatchups for this lineup are shown neutrally for now and will sharpen automatically once the opposing starter is posted (usually a day or two before first pitch).
Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 6-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 1@ COL0
Jul 2@ COL0
Jul 3@ ATH0
Jul 4@ ATH1
Jul 5@ ATH1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.162

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Otto Lopez's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 1@ COL0
Jul 2@ COL0
Jul 3@ ATH1
Jul 4@ ATH0
Jul 5@ ATH2

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.146

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Heriberto Hernández's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 16-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 1@ COL0
Jul 2@ COL0
Jul 3@ ATH0
Jul 4@ ATH0
Jul 5@ ATH0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.155

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Liam Hicks's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jul 1@ COL0
Jul 2@ COL0
Jul 3@ ATH0
Jul 4@ ATH0
Jul 5@ ATH0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.139

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Xavier Edwards's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 6-game hitting streak

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30@ COL1
Jul 1@ COL0
Jul 2@ COL0
Jul 4@ ATH0
Jul 5@ ATH0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.148

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Javier Sanoja's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 28@ STL0
Jun 29@ COL0
Jul 1@ COL0
Jul 4@ ATH0
Jul 5@ ATH0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.131

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Esteury Ruiz's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30@ COL0
Jul 1@ COL0
Jul 2@ COL0
Jul 3@ ATH0
Jul 5@ ATH1

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.128

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Leo Jiménez's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 30@ COL0
Jul 2@ COL0
Jul 3@ ATH1
Jul 4@ ATH0
Jul 5@ ATH0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.125

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Jakob Marsee's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesHome Runs

Jun 24vs TEX0
Jun 28@ STL0
Jun 30@ COL0
Jul 1@ COL0
Jul 5@ ATH0

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.032

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

HR EnvironmentNeutral +0%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Home Runs0.122

A rough estimate of home runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brian Navarreto's full player page →